DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Average Retail Prices for All Eight Fertilizers Now Lower

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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The average retail price of MAP was 6% lower the fourth week of December 2022 than it was a month ago, at $909 per ton. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail fertilizer prices have begun to move noticeably lower for the fourth week of December 2022, according to sellers surveyed by DTN. Prices for all eight major fertilizers are now lower compared to last month.

Three fertilizers were significantly lower compared to last month. DTN designates a substantial move as anything 5% or more.

MAP, potash and urea were all 6% less expensive compared to last month. MAP had an average price of $909 per ton, potash $790/ton and urea $757/ton.

Potash has moved below the $800/ton level for the first time since the second week of December 2021. The price at that time was $796/ton.

The remaining five fertilizers were slightly less expensive looking back to last month. DAP had an average price of $890/ton, 10-34-0 $751/ton, anhydrous $1,360/ton, UAN28 $578/ton and UAN32 $681/ton.

DAP, meanwhile, moved below the $900/ton level for the first time since the fourth week of February 2022. That week, the price was at $879/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.82/lb.N, anhydrous $0.83/lb.N, UAN28 $1.03/lb.N and UAN32 $1.06/lb.N.

In a report titled "Better News on World Fertilizer Prices" by University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) ag economic professors John Beghin and Lia Nogueira, the authors cite lower fertilizer prices in recent months have led to more affordable crop nutrients.

"In summary, while fertilizer prices remain high and uncertainty remains (energy prices, trade policies, the Ukraine-Russia war, etc.), there has been some recent good news due to declining fertilizer prices," the report said.

The report cites falling natural gas prices as part of the reason for lower fertilizer prices. Prices in Europe and the U.S. peaked in the summer and have been falling since.

The price differential for natural gas across markets creates an incentive to export from lower-price areas to higher-price areas. The infrastructure, however, to export natural gas to Europe outside of the established infrastructure for Russian supplies takes time to be established, according to the report.

To read the entire report, click on the following link: https://cap.unl.edu/….

Fertilizers are now mixed in price from one year earlier. This week, six fertilizers are lower while the other two are higher.

UAN32 is 1% higher compared to last year, while DAP is 3% more expensive. UAN28 is 1% lower, both MAP and potash are 2% less expensive, both 10-34-0 and anhydrous are 5% lower and urea is 17% less expensive looking back to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

A recent poll from DTN asking if farmers have purchased fertilizer already for the 2023 growing season showed three-fourths of respondents had. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Dec 20-24 2021 862 932 807 910
Jan 17-21 2022 863 932 807 916
Feb 14-18 2022 874 935 815 891
Mar 14-18 2022 970 1001 843 954
Apr 11-15 2022 1047 1071 875 1017
May 9-13 2022 1059 1083 881 1000
Jun 6-Jun 10 2022 1057 1077 880 977
Jul 4-8 2022 1038 1053 885 866
Aug 1-5 2022 1003 1036 883 812
Aug 29-Sep 2 2022 952 1022 877 804
Sep 26-30 2022 947 1005 874 812
Oct 24-28 2022 930 986 862 827
Nov 21-25 2022 927 972 841 802
Dec 19-Dec 23 2022 890 909 790 757
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Dec 20-24 2021 791 1424 583 679
Jan 17-21 2022 800 1433 585 683
Feb 14-18 2022 837 1488 603 703
Mar 14-18 2022 876 1520 610 706
Apr 11-15 2022 906 1534 630 730
May 9-13 2022 906 1529 634 730
Jun 6-Jun 10 2022 905 1518 633 731
Jul 4-8 2022 904 1466 609 702
Aug 1-5 2022 892 1387 592 679
Aug 29-Sep 2 2022 866 1364 576 671
Sep 26-30 2022 861 1380 581 670
Oct 24-28 2022 759 1422 580 678
Nov 21-25 2022 753 1419 583 681
Dec 19-Dec 23 2022 751 1360 578 681

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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Russ Quinn