DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue to drift slowly lower, according to prices tracked by DTN for the second week of December 2022. This has been the general trend in prices over the last several months.

Of the eight major fertilizers, seven were slightly lower. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

DAP had an average price of $920/ton, MAP $950/ton, potash $819/ton, urea $784/ton, 10-34-0 $751/ton, anhydrous $1,415/ton and UAN28 $$581/ton.

The remaining fertilizer, UAN32, was just slightly more expensive than last month with an average price of $681/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.85/lb.N, anhydrous $0.86/lb.N, UAN28 $1.04/lb.N and UAN32 $1.07/lb.N.

A CoBank report titled "2023 The Year Ahead: Forces That Will Shape the U.S. Rural Economy", examines the outlook for agriculture into the next year.

At the top of the list of challenges is lower forecasted farm income. The U.S. ag economy has fared well in recent years, posting new record highs for net farm income in 2021 and then again in 2022.

CoBank says this might change in 2023 amid skyrocketing production costs, steeply higher interest rates, an elevated dollar and weakening domestic and export demand caused by declining real incomes amidst spiraling inflation.

The report also touched a bit on the outlook for fertilizer in 2023. Wholesale fertilizer costs look to remain high during the first half of 2023 as cooperatives not only absorb high barge and rail costs, but also compete with the export markets for limited supply of nutrients.

Some 70% of the European fertilizer production was offline during the third quarter 2022 as the region dealt with record-high natural gas prices.

"Fertilizer prices will likely begin and end 2023 at elevated levels, minimizing the opportunities for retailers to capture the same level of carry margin that was available during 2021/2022," the report said.

The entire report can be read at https://www.cobank.com/….

Most retail fertilizer prices continue to be higher in price than one year earlier, although two are now slightly lower.

10-34-0 is now 1% lower while urea is 12% less expensive than one year ago. UAN28 is 1% higher, both anhydrous and UAN32 are 3% more expensive, MAP is 4% higher, potash is 5% more expensive and DAP is 10% higher compared to last year.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

High inputs prices, including fertilizers, remain on farmers' list of concerns, according to the most recent edition of the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Dry
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Dec 6-10 2021	840	919	778	887
Jan 3-7 2022	863	931	807	913
Jan 31-Feb 4 2022	877	933	813	905
Feb 28-Mar 4 2022	879	937	815	887
Mar 28-Apr 1 2022	1033	1045	868	1022
Apr 25-29 2022	1049	1082	881	1004
May 23-27 2022	1056	1082	879	989
Jun 20-Jun 24 2022	1040	1058	885	902
Jul 18-22 2022	1007	1043	887	836
Aug 15-19 2022	978	1026	881	807
Sep 12-16 2022	952	1009	877	808
Oct 10-14 2022	925	986	863	824
Nov 7-11 2022	931	980	853	812
Dec 5-Dec 9 2022	920	950	819	784
Liquid
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Dec 6-10 2021	756	1372	577	661
Jan 3-7 2022	795	1430	584	679
Jan 31-Feb 4 2022	826	1487	600	699
Feb 28-Mar 4 2022	837	1487	603	703
Mar 28-Apr 1 2022	896	1526	637	711
Apr 25-29 2022	906	1534	631	730
May 23-27 2022	906	1531	634	731
Jun 20-Jun 24 2022	905	1497	616	716
Jul 18-22 2022	894	1431	598	696
Aug 15-19 2022	878	1336	576	676
Sep 12-16 2022	861	1369	578	665
Oct 10-14 2022	759	1417	576	670
Nov 7-11 2022	758	1434	582	680
Dec 5-Dec 9 2022	751	1415	581	681

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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