DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

DAP Leading Way as Prices Continue Lower

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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DAP was 5 percent less expensive in the last week of August compared to last month. The phosphorus fertilizer's average price was $952/ton. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue their slow price decline, according to numbers tracked by DTN for the last week of August 2022. It has now been five weeks when all eight of the major fertilizers are less expensive compared to a month ago.

Only one fertilizer price was significantly lower. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or greater.

DAP was 5% less expensive looking back to last month. The phosphorus fertilizer's average price was $952/ton.

The remaining seven fertilizers were just slightly lower. MAP had an average price of $1,022/ton, potash $877/ton, urea $804/ton, 10-34-0 $866/ton, anhydrous $1,364/ton, UAN28 $576/ton and UAN32 $671/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.87/lb.N, anhydrous $0.83/lb.N, UAN28 $1.03/lb.N and UAN32 $1.05/lb.N.

The Russia/Ukraine military conflict will continue to put uncertainty in the global fertilizer market in the coming months, according to the August Rabobank North American Agribusiness Review. This has resulted in price dislocations and illiquid markets, causing prices to reach real-time records in some markets since the war began.

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"This uncertainty is likely to persist over the coming months," the report said.

North American growers are likely to see tight markets, with the risk that uncertainty in the global market spreads to the U.S. market. Many regions may move early to secure fertilizer supply for the upcoming season, given the potential long-term risk associated with the war.

Rabobank said there are two factors hanging over the world fertilizer market currently. One is grower demand destruction from higher prices while the other is when and how the Chinese re-enter the global export market of nitrogen and phosphates.

The risk of further prices moving higher in the North American fertilizer market is apparent during the coming months.

"Given Russia and Belarus's outsized position in the potash market, it seems likely that there is most steam in the MOP (Muriate of Potash) market," the report said. "However, we cannot discount the potential for further volatility and disruption in all macronutrients."

Despite lower prices in recent months, all fertilizers continue to be considerably higher in price than one year earlier.

MAP is 35% more expensive, both DAP and 10-34-0 are 37% higher, urea is 44% more expensive, potash is 53% higher, UAN28 is 56% more expensive, UAN32 is 60% higher and anhydrous is 82% more expensive compared to last year.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

Yara International announced recently it is curtailing fertilizer production in Europe due to skyrocketing natural gas prices. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Dry
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Aug 30-Sep 3 2021 697 756 571 557
Sep 27-Oct 1 2021 722 800 647 620
Oct 25-29 2021 812 873 731 751
Nov 22-26 2021 830 915 775 868
Dec 20-24 2021 862 932 807 910
Jan 17-21 2022 863 932 807 916
Feb 14-18 2022 874 935 815 891
Mar 14-18 2022 970 1001 843 954
Apr 11-15 2022 1047 1071 875 1017
May 9-13 2022 1059 1083 881 1000
Jun 6-Jun 10 2022 1057 1077 880 977
Jul 4-8 2022 1038 1053 885 866
Aug 1-5 2022 1003 1036 883 812
Aug 29-Sep 2 2022 952 1022 877 804
Liquid
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Aug 30-Sep 3 2021 632 749 371 420
Sep 27-Oct 1 2021 638 782 388 444
Oct 25-29 2021 663 982 458 522
Nov 22-26 2021 755 1308 574 660
Dec 20-24 2021 791 1424 583 679
Jan 17-21 2022 800 1433 585 683
Feb 14-18 2022 837 1488 603 703
Mar 14-18 2022 876 1520 610 706
Apr 11-15 2022 906 1534 630 730
May 9-13 2022 906 1529 634 730
Jun 6-Jun 10 2022 905 1518 633 731
Jul 4-8 2022 904 1466 609 702
Aug 1-5 2022 892 1387 592 679
Aug 29-Sep 2 2022 866 1364 576 671

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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Russ Quinn