DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continued to be mostly lower, led by urea, the third week of July 2022, according to sellers surveyed by DTN. This march to less expensive prices has been a market feature for two consecutive months now.

Once again, all but one of the eight major fertilizers are lower compared to last month, with only one fertilizer down substantially. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

Urea was 7% lower compared to last month. The nitrogen fertilizer had an average price of $836 per ton.

DAP had an average price of $1,007/ton, MAP $1,043/ton, 10-34-0 $894/ton, anhydrous $1,431/ton, UAN28 $598/ton and UAN28 $696/ton.

10-34-0 crossed the sub-$900/ton threshold for the first time since the fourth week of March 2022 when the price was $896/ton.

UAN28 dropped below $600/ton for the first time since the third week of January 2022, when the price was $585/ton. UAN32 dipped below the $700/ton mark for the first time since the third week of March 2022 when the price was $698/ton.

One fertilizer was slightly more expensive compared to last month. Potash had an average price of $887/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.91/lb.N, anhydrous $0.87/lb.N, UAN28 $1.07/lb.N and UAN32 $1.09/lb.N.

In a report posted at the University of Illinois farmdoc Daily e-newsletter titled "Weekly Farm Economics: Nitrogen Fertilizer Outlook for 2023 Decisions," both University of Illinois and Ohio State University ag economists examine current fertilizer prices (https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/…).

Farmers who purchased fertilizer early for the 2022 growing season had much lower fertilizer prices. However, this same trajectory of buying early may not occur this year, and prices could even be lower by next spring.

Fertilizer prices have stabilized or even declined slightly since the Ukraine-Russia military conflict began. Grain markets have also stabilized during this time as well.

"Overall, the markets appear to have absorbed the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict," the report stated.

The authors said the two largest factors on where fertilizer prices are going in the near future are the natural gas price and corn prices.

In recent months, the natural gas price at Henry Hub has increased, reaching $8.14 per million BTUs in May and $7.70 in June, according to the report. Current corn prices point to relatively high nitrogen fertilizer prices, but they've been falling, which could point to the potential for further declines in nitrogen fertilizer price.

Farmers may want to wait to purchase nitrogen for the 2023 growing season, as prices could be lower come spring, considering the high levels they are currently at, the authors wrote. Whenever nitrogen is purchased, breakeven prices will be likely be much higher in 2023 -- near $5/bushel for corn and $11/bushel for soybeans.

"Continuing high fertilizer prices and increases in all production costs point to the need for high corn and soybean prices to remain positive," the report said.

Most fertilizers continue to be considerably higher in prices than one year earlier.

MAP is 39% more expensive, 10-34-0 is 41% higher, DAP is 45% more expensive, urea is 51% higher, potash is 63% more expensive, UAN28 is 64% higher, UAN32 is 66% more expensive and anhydrous is 95% higher compared to last year.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

A recent poll by DTN showed 37% of respondents said they will not be purchasing fertilizer anytime soon. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Jul 19-23 2021	695	750	543	553
Aug 16-20 2021	695	755	564	556
Sep 13-17 2021	702	776	598	572
Oct 11-15 2021	798	860	710	719
Nov 8-12 2021	821	906	762	832
Dec 6-10 2021	840	919	778	887
Jan 3-7 2022	863	931	807	913
Jan 31-Feb 4 2022	877	933	813	905
Feb 28-Mar 4 2022	879	937	815	887
Mar 28-Apr 1 2022	1033	1045	868	1022
Apr 25-29 2022	1049	1082	881	1004
May 23-27 2022	1056	1082	879	989
Jun 20-Jun 24 2022	1040	1058	885	902
Jul 18-22 2022	1007	1043	887	836
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Jul 19-23 2021	632	736	365	419
Aug 16-20 2021	631	743	369	420
Sep 13-17 2021	632	762	381	428
Oct 11-15 2021	654	873	442	488
Nov 8-12 2021	719	1162	566	614
Dec 6-10 2021	756	1372	577	661
Jan 3-7 2022	795	1430	584	679
Jan 31-Feb 4 2022	826	1487	600	699
Feb 28-Mar 4 2022	837	1487	603	703
Mar 28-Apr 1 2022	896	1526	637	711
Apr 25-29 2022	906	1534	631	730
May 23-27 2022	906	1531	634	731
Jun 20-Jun 24 2022	905	1497	616	716
Jul 18-22 2022	894	1431	598	696

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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