DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Urea Leads Fertilizer Prices Down Once Again

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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At $866 per ton, the average retail price of urea is 11% lower than last month. However, it is still 58% more expensive than last year. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Most average retail fertilizer prices continued to be less expensive than last month during the first week of July 2022, according to fertilizer sellers surveyed by DTN. This lower trend has been in place for six weeks now.

All but one of the eight major fertilizers were lower compared to last month, with only one fertilizer down substantially. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

Urea was again 11% lower compared to last month. The nitrogen fertilizer had an average price of $866 per ton.

DAP had an average price of $1,038/ton, MAP $1,053/ton, 10-34-0 $904/ton, anhydrous $1,466/ton, UAN28 $609/ton and UAN28 $702/ton.

One fertilizer was just slightly more expensive compared to last month. Potash had an average price of $885/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.94/lb.N, anhydrous $0.89/lb.N, UAN28 $1.09/lb.N and UAN32 $1.10/lb.N.

Declining crop prices are pushing fertilizer prices lower. This, in turn, has dragged fertilizer companies' stock prices lower after nearly two full years of higher prices, according to Dow Jones.

Investors and analysts are deciding if fertilizer stocks got swept up in the broad market selloff and could still reverse course, or if they were bid up too high in the panic after Russia invaded Ukraine and have further to fall.

"I'd be real careful with the fertilizer stocks right now," Matthew Tuttle, chief executive of Tuttle Capital Management told Dow Jones.

In mid-April, Mosaic and CF were up 99% and 55% for the year. While they have tumbled since, they remain among the best performers in the S&P 500 this year.

Dow Jones notes that Mosaic's stock has added 15% and CF's stock has gained 20% in 2022, compared with an 18% decline in the broader stock index. Other fertilizer companies have seen similar arcs.

On the retail level, most fertilizer prices continue to be considerably higher than one year earlier.

MAP is 44% more expensive, 10-34-0 is 45% higher, DAP is 51% more expensive, urea is 58% higher, UAN28 is 64% more expensive, UAN32 is 67% higher, potash is 80% more expensive and anhydrous is 100% higher compared to last year.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer shows farmers continue to be concerned about rising input prices and the availability of these products. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Jul 5-9 2021 690 729 491 549
Aug 2-6 2021 695 755 557 556
Aug 30-Sep 3 2021 697 756 571 557
Sep 27-Oct 1 2021 722 800 647 620
Oct 25-29 2021 812 873 731 751
Nov 22-26 2021 830 915 775 868
Dec 20-24 2021 862 932 807 910
Jan 17-21 2022 863 932 807 916
Feb 14-18 2022 874 935 815 891
Mar 14-18 2022 970 1001 843 954
Apr 11-15 2022 1047 1071 875 1017
May 9-13 2022 1059 1083 881 1000
Jun 6-Jun 10 2022 1057 1077 880 977
Jul 4-8 2022 1038 1053 885 866
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Jul 5-9 2021 624 732 371 421
Aug 2-6 2021 631 738 367 418
Aug 30-Sep 3 2021 632 749 371 420
Sep 27-Oct 1 2021 638 782 388 444
Oct 25-29 2021 663 982 458 522
Nov 22-26 2021 755 1308 574 660
Dec 20-24 2021 791 1424 583 679
Jan 17-21 2022 800 1433 585 683
Feb 14-18 2022 837 1488 603 703
Mar 14-18 2022 876 1520 610 706
Apr 11-15 2022 906 1534 630 730
May 9-13 2022 906 1529 634 730
Jun 6-Jun 10 2022 905 1518 633 731
Jul 4-8 2022 904 1466 609 702

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

Russ Quinn