DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Most Fertilizer Prices Move Lower for First Time Since November 2020

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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The average retail price of a ton of anhydrous was $1,529. While that's slightly lower than last month, it's still 112% more expensive than last year. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- The streak is broken.

A majority of retail fertilizer prices are lower compared to last month, according to prices tracked by DTN for the last week of May 2022. This is the first time since the third week of November 2020 that most fertilizers are lower.

Six fertilizers' prices were lower compared to last month, but as we have seen in recent weeks, none were down a substantial amount. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

DAP had an average price of $1,056/ton, MAP $1,079/ton, potash $880/ton, urea $979/ton, 10-34-0 $905/ton and anhydrous $1,529/ton.

Two fertilizers were slightly more expensive compared to last month. UAN28 had an average price of $633/ton and UAN32 $731/ton (all-time high price).

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $1.06/lb.N, anhydrous $0.93/lb.N, UAN28 $1.13/lb.N and UAN32 $1.14/lb.N.

It only took one year, six months and 20 days for the majority of fertilizer prices to finally be lower. And it only took me about an hour and seven notebooks to find this data.

As I flipped through my notebooks, looking for pages where I would write how many fertilizers' prices were up or down each week, I noticed how many weeks all eight fertilizers were higher and zero fertilizers were lower. Each week, there were large increases through the entire winter of 2020/2021 and into that spring.

You don't have to be a fertilizer analyst to recognize that nearly 19 consecutive months of higher fertilizer prices is like a rocket. I thought it would be interesting to compare fertilizer prices from the third week of November 2020 to prices for the fifth week of May 2022.

Let's start with the nitrogen fertilizers.

Anhydrous was $422/ton in November of 2020. This week it is at $1,529/ton. Urea was at $358/ton back then, and now it is $979/ton.

UAN28 was at $207/ton, and now it is at $633/ton; UAN32 was at $249/ton, and now it is $731/ton. Some of the nitrogen fertilizers are now three times more expensive.

Are you not depressed enough? What about phosphorus fertilizers?

DAP's average price in November 2020 was $455/ton while this past week it was $1,056/ton. MAP was $488/ton, now it is $1079/ton. These fertilizers have more than doubled in the last year and a half.

And finally, what about potash and 10-34-0?

The price in November of 2020 for potash was at $336/ton and in the last week of May 2022 the price is $880/ton. 10-34-0 was at $455/ton, and now it is $905/ton.

In November of 2020, I don't think anyone thought it would take nearly 19 months for the majority of fertilizers to be lower once again compared to the previous month. I know I didn't.

Most fertilizers continue to be considerably higher in prices than one year earlier.

10-34-0 is 46% more expensive, MAP is 52% higher, DAP is 62% more expensive, UAN28 is 75% higher, UAN32 is 77% more expensive, urea is 87% is higher, potash is 99% higher and anhydrous is 113% more expensive compared to last year.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

Dow Jones reported grain prices are expected to remain elevated and this, in turn, will help to support fertilizer prices. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Dry
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
May 31-Jun 4 2021 652 712 443 524
Jun 28-Jul 2 2021 677 721 476 542
Jul 26-30 2021 695 753 549 554
Aug 23-27 2021 697 756 569 557
Sep 20-24 2021 709 786 625 585
Oct 18-22 2021 810 863 716 735
Nov 15-19 2021 825 911 769 859
Dec 13-17 2021 858 935 796 901
Jan 10-14 2022 863 932 807 913
Feb 7-11 2022 876 935 815 905
Mar 7-11 2022 919 955 822 901
Apr 4-8 2022 1040 1056 875 1031
May 2-6 2022 1057 1081 881 1001
May 30-Jun 3 2022 1056 1079 880 979
Liquid
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
May 31-Jun 4 2021 619 719 363 412
Jun 28-Jul 2 2021 625 730 366 421
Jul 26-30 2021 631 737 365 419
Aug 23-27 2021 632 748 370 420
Sep 20-24 2021 633 772 383 436
Oct 18-22 2021 659 940 451 492
Nov 15-19 2021 739 1220 571 651
Dec 13-17 2021 790 1420 579 663
Jan 10-14 2022 796 1430 584 679
Feb 7-11 2022 827 1487 600 699
Mar 7-11 2022 866 1490 603 704
Apr 4-8 2022 901 1534 629 729
May 2-6 2022 906 1534 631 730
May 30-Jun 3 2022 905 1529 633 731

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

Russ Quinn