DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- The streak is broken.

A majority of retail fertilizer prices are lower compared to last month, according to prices tracked by DTN for the last week of May 2022. This is the first time since the third week of November 2020 that most fertilizers are lower.

Six fertilizers' prices were lower compared to last month, but as we have seen in recent weeks, none were down a substantial amount. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

DAP had an average price of $1,056/ton, MAP $1,079/ton, potash $880/ton, urea $979/ton, 10-34-0 $905/ton and anhydrous $1,529/ton.

Two fertilizers were slightly more expensive compared to last month. UAN28 had an average price of $633/ton and UAN32 $731/ton (all-time high price).

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $1.06/lb.N, anhydrous $0.93/lb.N, UAN28 $1.13/lb.N and UAN32 $1.14/lb.N.

It only took one year, six months and 20 days for the majority of fertilizer prices to finally be lower. And it only took me about an hour and seven notebooks to find this data.

As I flipped through my notebooks, looking for pages where I would write how many fertilizers' prices were up or down each week, I noticed how many weeks all eight fertilizers were higher and zero fertilizers were lower. Each week, there were large increases through the entire winter of 2020/2021 and into that spring.

You don't have to be a fertilizer analyst to recognize that nearly 19 consecutive months of higher fertilizer prices is like a rocket. I thought it would be interesting to compare fertilizer prices from the third week of November 2020 to prices for the fifth week of May 2022.

Let's start with the nitrogen fertilizers.

Anhydrous was $422/ton in November of 2020. This week it is at $1,529/ton. Urea was at $358/ton back then, and now it is $979/ton.

UAN28 was at $207/ton, and now it is at $633/ton; UAN32 was at $249/ton, and now it is $731/ton. Some of the nitrogen fertilizers are now three times more expensive.

Are you not depressed enough? What about phosphorus fertilizers?

DAP's average price in November 2020 was $455/ton while this past week it was $1,056/ton. MAP was $488/ton, now it is $1079/ton. These fertilizers have more than doubled in the last year and a half.

And finally, what about potash and 10-34-0?

The price in November of 2020 for potash was at $336/ton and in the last week of May 2022 the price is $880/ton. 10-34-0 was at $455/ton, and now it is $905/ton.

In November of 2020, I don't think anyone thought it would take nearly 19 months for the majority of fertilizers to be lower once again compared to the previous month. I know I didn't.

Most fertilizers continue to be considerably higher in prices than one year earlier.

10-34-0 is 46% more expensive, MAP is 52% higher, DAP is 62% more expensive, UAN28 is 75% higher, UAN32 is 77% more expensive, urea is 87% is higher, potash is 99% higher and anhydrous is 113% more expensive compared to last year.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

Dow Jones reported grain prices are expected to remain elevated and this, in turn, will help to support fertilizer prices. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Dry
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
May 31-Jun 4 2021	652	712	443	524
Jun 28-Jul 2 2021	677	721	476	542
Jul 26-30 2021	695	753	549	554
Aug 23-27 2021	697	756	569	557
Sep 20-24 2021	709	786	625	585
Oct 18-22 2021	810	863	716	735
Nov 15-19 2021	825	911	769	859
Dec 13-17 2021	858	935	796	901
Jan 10-14 2022	863	932	807	913
Feb 7-11 2022	876	935	815	905
Mar 7-11 2022	919	955	822	901
Apr 4-8 2022	1040	1056	875	1031
May 2-6 2022	1057	1081	881	1001
May 30-Jun 3 2022	1056	1079	880	979
Liquid
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
May 31-Jun 4 2021	619	719	363	412
Jun 28-Jul 2 2021	625	730	366	421
Jul 26-30 2021	631	737	365	419
Aug 23-27 2021	632	748	370	420
Sep 20-24 2021	633	772	383	436
Oct 18-22 2021	659	940	451	492
Nov 15-19 2021	739	1220	571	651
Dec 13-17 2021	790	1420	579	663
Jan 10-14 2022	796	1430	584	679
Feb 7-11 2022	827	1487	600	699
Mar 7-11 2022	866	1490	603	704
Apr 4-8 2022	901	1534	629	729
May 2-6 2022	906	1534	631	730
May 30-Jun 3 2022	905	1529	633	731

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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