DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continued to be mostly higher the first full week of February 2022, according to sellers surveyed by DTN. All but one of the major fertilizers were higher compared to last month.

Seven of the eight major fertilizers were slightly higher, although none were up a considerable amount. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

DAP had an average price of $876 per ton compared to last month, MAP $935/ton, potash $815/ton, 10-34-0 $827/ton, anhydrous $1,487/ton (all-time high), UAN28 $600/ton and UAN32 $699/ton (all-time high).

In recent weeks, UAN28 was at or above $600/ton. This is the first time UAN28 has ever been above $600/ton in our dataset.

One fertilizer was lower in price from the previous month. Urea was slightly lower with an average price of $905/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.98/lb.N, anhydrous $0.91/lb.N, UAN28 $1.07/lb.N and UAN32 $1.09/lb.N.

Perspective is an interesting thing and sometimes we gain a new perspective being away from something for a while. As you may or may not have noticed, I haven't written this column the past couple of weeks.

Now that I'm back writing the column, I noticed immediately the percentages of fertilizer price increases for all eight major fertilizers are way lower than three weeks ago. I wondered why this was the case.

Retail fertilizer prices are not any lower in price, so how could the percentages change that much in just few weeks?

In the last week of January, fertilizer prices ranged from 69% to 202% higher from the previous week. This week, the range was "only" 46% to 184%.

I went back and looked to see what happened between the third week of January 2021 and the first week of February 2021. As you might recall, fertilizer prices were on a steady rise, but there was a big jump in prices in the last couple weeks of January and first week of February.

The third week of January 2021, DAP was $493/ton, MAP $563/ton, potash $379, urea $387/ton, 10-34-0 $481/ton, anhydrous $482/ton, UAN28 $215/ton and UAN32 $251/ton.

Two weeks later, prices really had taken off higher. DAP was $554/ton, DAP $601/ton, potash $389, urea $429/ton, 10-34-0 $502/ton, anhydrous $507/ton, UAN28 $239/ton and UAN32 $272/ton.

So, the percentages of price changes looking back a full year are much less for the first week of February compared to the third week of January 2021 because of the large price increase happening last year at the end of January.

Translation: Fertilizer prices have now been high for a full calendar year, so the percentages higher are not as great as they had been.

I thought that was kind of interesting. Of course, I have been writing about fertilizer prices for 12 years now ... what do I know about interesting?

Most fertilizers continue to be considerably higher in price than one year earlier.

MAP is now 46% more expensive, DAP is 49% higher, 10-34-0 is 61% more expensive, urea is 100% higher, potash is 105% more expensive, UAN32 is 145% higher, UAN28 147% is more expensive and anhydrous is 184% higher compared to last year.

DTN surveys more than 300 retailers, gathering roughly 1,700 fertilizer price bids, to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index each week. In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

The recent DTN Global Fertilizer Outlook series focused attention to what the world expectation could be in 2022. This series examined the supply and demand of nutrients globally as well as what direction fertilizer prices could go in the New Year.

Read the nitrogen outlook here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Read the phosphorus outlook here:

https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Read the potash outlook here:

https://www.dtnpf.com/…

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Feb 8-12 2021	588	642	398	453
Mar 8-12 2021	615	690	423	483
Apr 5-9 2021	618	699	431	504
May 3-7 2021	634	705	436	514
May 31-Jun 4 2021	652	712	443	524
Jun 28-Jul 2 2021	677	721	476	542
Jul 26-30 2021	695	753	549	554
Aug 23-27 2021	697	756	569	557
Sep 20-24 2021	709	786	625	585
Oct 18-22 2021	810	863	716	735
Nov 15-19 2021	825	911	769	859
Dec 13-17 2021	858	935	796	901
Jan 10-14 2022	863	932	807	913
Feb 7-11 2022	876	935	815	905
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Feb 8-12 2021	512	524	243	285
Mar 8-12 2021	581	625	306	344
Apr 5-9 2021	605	692	341	378
May 3-7 2021	618	712	358	398
May 31-Jun 4 2021	619	719	363	412
Jun 28-Jul 2 2021	625	730	366	421
Jul 26-30 2021	631	737	365	419
Aug 23-27 2021	632	748	370	420
Sep 20-24 2021	633	772	383	436
Oct 18-22 2021	659	940	451	492
Nov 15-19 2021	739	1220	571	651
Dec 13-17 2021	790	1420	579	663
Jan 10-14 2022	796	1430	584	679
Feb 7-11 2022	827	1487	600	699

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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