DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends
Anhydrous, 10-34-0 Led Fertilizer Prices Up
OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue to rise but at smaller percentages, according to prices for the last week of December 2021.
Only two fertilizers were up a considerable amount. DTN designates a substantial move as anything 5% or more.
Leading the way higher was anhydrous, up 9% from a month prior. The nitrogen fertilizer's average price was $1,428/ton, which continues to be the all-time high in the DTN data set.
10-34-0 was 5% more expensive compared to last month. The starter fertilizer's average price was at $795/ton.
The remaining six fertilizers had just slight price increases compared to the prior month. DAP had an average price of $864/ton, MAP $931/ton, potash $809/ton, urea $911/ton (all-time high), UAN28 $583/ton (all-time high) and UAN32 $679/ton (all-time high).
On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.99/lb.N, anhydrous $0.87/lb.N, UAN28 $1.04/lb.N and UAN32 $1.06/lb.N.
Purdue University Extension recently released its 2022 Crop Cost and Return guide. No surprise here -- inputs are significantly higher, specifically fertilizer. (See https://ag.purdue.edu/…)
The Purdue guide is divided up between low productivity soil, average productivity soil and high productivity soil. Then, in each continuous corn, rotation of corn, rotation of soybeans, wheat and double-crop soybeans are the different cropping enterprises.
The fertilizer cost ranged from $61/acre on the low end (double-crop soybeans in the low productivity soils) to $316/acre (continuous corn in highly productivity soil). Rotation of corn was $257/acre on the low productivity soil, $272 in the average productivity soil to $286/acre in the high productivity soil.
Compared to the 2021 Crop Cost and Return Guide (https://ag.purdue.edu/…) which was released in February 2021, 2022 fertilizer costs are significantly higher.
The 2021 fertilizer cost estimate ranged from $32/ton to $141/ton. Rotation of corn ranged from $111/ton on low productivity soil, to $121/acre in the average productivity soil and $131/acre in the high productivity soil.
The estimated fertilizer cost increased $59/acre on the double-crop soybeans in low productivity soils to a whopping $220/acre in the continuous corn in high productivity soil from the 2021 to 2022 crop budget.
The increase in the three rotations of corn estimates was also fairly striking. In the low productivity soils the difference in the two years was a $146/acre increase, in average productivity soil it was a $151/acre difference and in high productivity soil it was $155/acre difference.
These crop cost and return guides from Purdue University Extension show with hard numbers farmers' 2022 fertilizer costs are about to double compared to the 2021 crops' nutrient costs.
Retail fertilizer prices compared to a year ago show all fertilizers have increased significantly, with several fertilizers having well over 100% price increases.
10-34-0 is now 71% more expensive, MAP is 73% higher, DAP is 82% more expensive, potash is 121% higher, urea is 148% more expensive, UAN32 is 171% higher, UAN28 179% is more expensive and anhydrous is 204% higher compared to last year.
DTN surveys more than 300 retailers, gathering roughly 1,700 fertilizer price bids, to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index each week. In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….
With rising input prices, led by large increases in fertilizer prices, corn and soybean producers' profitability will depend largely on the continued strength of grain prices. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
The recent DTN Global Fertilizer Outlook series focused attention to what the world expectation could be in 2022. This series examined the supply and demand of nutrients globally as well as what direction fertilizer prices could go in the New Year.
Read the nitrogen outlook here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
Read the phosphorus outlook here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…
Read the potash outlook here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…
| Dry | ||||
| Date Range | DAP | MAP | POTASH | UREA |
| Dec 28-Jan 1 2021 | 475 | 537 | 366 | 367 |
| Jan 25-29 2021 | 500 | 580 | 379 | 405 |
| Feb 22-26 2021 | 605 | 661 | 408 | 464 |
| Mar 22-26 2021 | 616 | 696 | 428 | 499 |
| Apr 19-23 2021 | 627 | 703 | 432 | 510 |
| May 17-21 2021 | 642 | 708 | 440 | 521 |
| Jun 14-18 2021 | 661 | 719 | 454 | 531 |
| Jul 12-16 2021 | 693 | 730 | 501 | 550 |
| Aug 9-13 2021 | 695 | 755 | 563 | 555 |
| Sep 6-10 2021 | 699 | 757 | 575 | 558 |
| Oct 4-8 2021 | 736 | 829 | 675 | 653 |
| Nov 1-5 2021 | 814 | 900 | 750 | 820 |
| Nov 29-Dec 3 2021 | 836 | 918 | 777 | 873 |
| Dec 27-31 2021 | 864 | 931 | 809 | 911 |
| Liquid | ||||
| Date Range | 10-34-0 | ANHYD | UAN28 | UAN32 |
| Dec 28-Jan 1 2021 | 464 | 470 | 209 | 250 |
| Jan 25-29 2021 | 489 | 489 | 220 | 258 |
| Feb 22-26 2021 | 532 | 544 | 250 | 296 |
| Mar 22-26 2021 | 599 | 684 | 335 | 376 |
| Apr 19-23 2021 | 612 | 707 | 348 | 391 |
| May 17-21 2021 | 620 | 716 | 361 | 407 |
| Jun 14-18 2021 | 621 | 719 | 365 | 414 |
| Jul 12-16 2021 | 624 | 725 | 368 | 418 |
| Aug 9-13 2021 | 630 | 740 | 366 | 418 |
| Sep 6-10 2021 | 631 | 750 | 371 | 422 |
| Oct 4-8 2021 | 639 | 803 | 400 | 456 |
| Nov 1-5 2021 | 702 | 1113 | 545 | 604 |
| Nov 29-Dec 3 2021 | 756 | 1313 | 575 | 661 |
| Dec 27-31 2021 | 795 | 1428 | 583 | 679 |
Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com
Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN
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