DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

No Major Price Increases as Fertilizers Maintain Upward March

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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Retail prices of 10-34-0 fertilizer, which had an average price of $631 per ton in the third week of August 2021, spiked last spring and have slowly inched upward since. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- It's a baby step for the constantly higher retail fertilizer market. No fertilizer had a significant price increase for the first time in nearly nine months.

DTN, which surveys nearly 1,700 fertilizer retailers each week, considers a price change of 5% or more from the month before to be significant. In the third week of August, DTN found that while prices of the eight major fertilizers increased, most were by 1% or less.

Last winter, DAP and MAP prices surged higher on tariffs on imports coming from Morocco and Russia. Nitrogen prices rallied through spring planting, and in recent months, it's been potash pushing considerably higher.

It's the first time since the first week of December 2020 that none of the eight major fertilizers had a significant price increase to report, although potash was close. At $564 per ton, it's 4% more expensive than last month.

The rest saw minor changes. DAP had an average price of $695/ton, MAP $755/ton, potash $564/ton, urea $556/ton, 10-34-0 $631/ton, anhydrous $743/ton, UAN28 $369/ton and UAN32 $420/ton.

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On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.60/lb.N, anhydrous $0.45/lb.N, UAN28 $0.66/lb.N and UAN32 $0.66/lb.N.

Last week, mining giant BHP announced that construction of a potash mine project in Saskatchewan, Canada, would finally begin.

BHP announced it had approved spending $7.5 billion to begin building the Jansen potash mine, which was originally announced in 2010, according to CBC News (https://www.cbc.ca/…). Once the project is completed, the mine is expected to produce 4.35 million metric tons (mmt) of potash per year, with the potential for future expansions.

Ragnar Udd, BHP's president of minerals-Americas, said the company makes large business decision based on long-term "megatrends," and one of those trends is population growth and the world's necessity to grow more food, which requires more fertilizer.

"It's a bit of a no-brainer in terms of a commodity," Udd said.

The company said it expects the global demand for potash fertilizer demand to rise by the late 2020s and 2030s.

Retail fertilizer prices compared to a year ago show all fertilizers have increased significantly.

10-34-0 is now 36% more expensive, urea is 56% higher, potash is 60% more expensive, UAN32 is 62% higher, DAP is 63% more expensive, both UAN28 and anhydrous are 67% more expensive and MAP is 74% higher compared to last year.

DTN surveys more than 300 retailers, gathering roughly 1,700 fertilizer price bids, to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index each week. In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

The impact of higher fertilizer prices on farmers' profitability picture was the focus of last week's Retail Fertilizer Trends column. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Aug 17-21 2020 427 434 353 356
Sep 14-18 2020 434 448 344 360
Oct 12-16 2020 445 475 332 359
Nov 9-13 2020 454 486 333 358
Dec 7-11 2020 456 510 348 361
Jan 4-8 2021 482 543 369 368
Feb 1-5 2021 554 601 389 429
Mar 1-5 2021 609 673 416 474
Mar 29-Apr 2 2021 618 697 429 502
Apr 26-30 2021 629 703 433 513
May 24-28 2021 652 709 443 523
Jun 21-25 2021 670 720 469 541
Jul 19-23 2021 695 750 543 553
Aug 16-20 2021 695 755 564 556
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Aug 17-21 2020 465 445 220 259
Sep 14-18 2020 455 431 219 253
Oct 12-16 2020 457 424 209 249
Nov 9-13 2020 455 422 208 248
Dec 7-11 2020 464 429 210 252
Jan 4-8 2021 464 470 209 251
Feb 1-5 2021 502 507 239 272
Mar 1-5 2021 560 560 254 304
Mar 29-Apr 2 2021 599 685 340 377
Apr 26-30 2021 613 710 350 391
May 24-28 2021 619 719 361 407
Jun 21-25 2021 625 724 366 420
Jul 19-23 2021 632 736 365 419
Aug 16-20 2021 631 743 369 420

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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Russ Quinn