DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- It's a baby step for the constantly higher retail fertilizer market. No fertilizer had a significant price increase for the first time in nearly nine months.

DTN, which surveys nearly 1,700 fertilizer retailers each week, considers a price change of 5% or more from the month before to be significant. In the third week of August, DTN found that while prices of the eight major fertilizers increased, most were by 1% or less.

Last winter, DAP and MAP prices surged higher on tariffs on imports coming from Morocco and Russia. Nitrogen prices rallied through spring planting, and in recent months, it's been potash pushing considerably higher.

It's the first time since the first week of December 2020 that none of the eight major fertilizers had a significant price increase to report, although potash was close. At $564 per ton, it's 4% more expensive than last month.

The rest saw minor changes. DAP had an average price of $695/ton, MAP $755/ton, potash $564/ton, urea $556/ton, 10-34-0 $631/ton, anhydrous $743/ton, UAN28 $369/ton and UAN32 $420/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.60/lb.N, anhydrous $0.45/lb.N, UAN28 $0.66/lb.N and UAN32 $0.66/lb.N.

Last week, mining giant BHP announced that construction of a potash mine project in Saskatchewan, Canada, would finally begin.

BHP announced it had approved spending $7.5 billion to begin building the Jansen potash mine, which was originally announced in 2010, according to CBC News (https://www.cbc.ca/…). Once the project is completed, the mine is expected to produce 4.35 million metric tons (mmt) of potash per year, with the potential for future expansions.

Ragnar Udd, BHP's president of minerals-Americas, said the company makes large business decision based on long-term "megatrends," and one of those trends is population growth and the world's necessity to grow more food, which requires more fertilizer.

"It's a bit of a no-brainer in terms of a commodity," Udd said.

The company said it expects the global demand for potash fertilizer demand to rise by the late 2020s and 2030s.

Retail fertilizer prices compared to a year ago show all fertilizers have increased significantly.

10-34-0 is now 36% more expensive, urea is 56% higher, potash is 60% more expensive, UAN32 is 62% higher, DAP is 63% more expensive, both UAN28 and anhydrous are 67% more expensive and MAP is 74% higher compared to last year.

DTN surveys more than 300 retailers, gathering roughly 1,700 fertilizer price bids, to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index each week. In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

The impact of higher fertilizer prices on farmers' profitability picture was the focus of last week's Retail Fertilizer Trends column. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Aug 17-21 2020	427	434	353	356
Sep 14-18 2020	434	448	344	360
Oct 12-16 2020	445	475	332	359
Nov 9-13 2020	454	486	333	358
Dec 7-11 2020	456	510	348	361
Jan 4-8 2021	482	543	369	368
Feb 1-5 2021	554	601	389	429
Mar 1-5 2021	609	673	416	474
Mar 29-Apr 2 2021	618	697	429	502
Apr 26-30 2021	629	703	433	513
May 24-28 2021	652	709	443	523
Jun 21-25 2021	670	720	469	541
Jul 19-23 2021	695	750	543	553
Aug 16-20 2021	695	755	564	556
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Aug 17-21 2020	465	445	220	259
Sep 14-18 2020	455	431	219	253
Oct 12-16 2020	457	424	209	249
Nov 9-13 2020	455	422	208	248
Dec 7-11 2020	464	429	210	252
Jan 4-8 2021	464	470	209	251
Feb 1-5 2021	502	507	239	272
Mar 1-5 2021	560	560	254	304
Mar 29-Apr 2 2021	599	685	340	377
Apr 26-30 2021	613	710	350	391
May 24-28 2021	619	719	361	407
Jun 21-25 2021	625	724	366	420
Jul 19-23 2021	632	736	365	419
Aug 16-20 2021	631	743	369	420

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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