DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices are significantly higher for the fifth week in a row, with all eight fertilizers tracked by DTN posting increases of 7% or more in the first week of March 2021.

DTN considers a 5% or greater price change to be significant.

Leading the way higher this week were MAP, 10-34-0 and UAN32, all of which are 12% higher compared to a month ago. MAP had an average price of $673 per ton, 10-34-0 $560/ton and UAN32 $304/ton.

UAN32 surpassed the $300/ton level for the first time since the first week of August 2019. That week, the liquid nitrogen price was $320/ton.

Both urea and anhydrous were up 11% looking back a month. Urea had an average price of $474/ton, while anhydrous was at $560/ton.

DAP was also considerably higher, coming in 10% higher than the prior month. The phosphorus fertilizer had an average price of $609/ton.

Both potash and UAN28 were up 7% compared to last month. Potash had an average price of $416/ton, while UAN28 was at $254/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.52/lb.N, anhydrous $0.34/lb.N, UAN28 $0.45/lb.N and UAN32 $0.48/lb.N.

In the most recent edition of the North American Agribusiness Review, RaboResearch Food and Agribusiness reported the current situation with fertilizer. While phosphates took the early lead in pushing prices higher, the other two macronutrients (nitrogen and potash) have also followed.

One nitrogen fertilizer that could see further price movement is urea, as higher corn prices push demand for the nutrient. U.S. urea prices could see upward pressure due to improved demand both domestically and in China, according to the report.

"The timing of price rises and subsequent re-sets is a moving target through the second half of the year as new capacity slated to come on line (globally) could create some price weakness in Q4," the report said. "This is unlikely to impact spring prices, but there may be no need to get ahead of purchasing in urea when thinking beyond spring applications."

While potash has not seen the same kind of price increases as the other nutrients, prices are about 30% since last August, driven by improved farmer margins and increasing demand. There is some concern prices could rise further into the summer fill and fall application season.

The Rabobank report said that, while most farmers are still thinking about the 2021 growing season, possible potash price rises into the second half of the year could offer pause for some thought on possibly locking in some fall potash needs.

With retail fertilizer prices moving higher over recent months, all fertilizers are now higher in price from a year ago.

UAN28 is now 8% more expensive, UAN32 is 10% higher, potash is 13% more expensive, anhydrous is 14% higher, 10-34-0 is 20% more expensive, urea is 28% higher, DAP is 49% more expensive and MAP is 56% higher compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Mar 2-6 2020	409	432	369	369
Mar 30-Apr 3 2020	408	432	370	383
Apr 27-May 1 2020	413	433	370	386
May 25-29 2020	410	434	365	377
Jun 22-26 2020	404	429	363	359
Jul 20-24, 2020	407	428	360	358
Aug 17-21 2020	427	434	353	356
Sep 14-18 2020	434	448	344	360
Oct 12-16 2020	445	475	332	359
Nov 9-13 2020	454	486	333	358
Dec 7-11 2020	456	510	348	361
Jan 4-8 2021	482	543	369	368
Feb 1-5 2021	554	601	389	429
Mar 1-5, 2021	609	673	416	474
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Mar 2-6 2020	466	490	235	277
Mar 30-Apr 3 2020	467	492	235	278
Apr 27-May 1 2020	468	492	237	279
May 25-29 2020	468	478	236	279
Jun 22-26 2020	468	463	233	273
Jul 20-24, 2020	466	460	225	263
Aug 17-21 2020	465	445	220	259
Sep 14-18 2020	455	431	219	253
Oct 12-16 2020	457	424	209	249
Nov 9-13 2020	455	422	208	248
Dec 7-11 2020	464	429	210	252
Jan 4-8 2021	464	470	209	251
Feb 1-5 2021	502	507	239	272
Mar 1-5, 2021	560	560	254	304

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

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