OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue to be mixed, according to locations tracked by DTN for the fourth week of September 2020.
For the third week in a row, five of the eight major fertilizers were lower while the remaining three nutrients were higher. Yet none of the prices changed by a significant amount, which DTN designates as 5% or more.
The five fertilizers that are lower in price are potash with an average price of $338/ton, down $14; 10-34-0 $457/ton, down $7; anhydrous $425/ton, down $17; UAN28 $215/ton, down $4; and UAN32 $253/ton, down $5.
The three fertilizers that are slightly higher include DAP with an average price of $434/ton, up $4; MAP $453/ton, up $18; and urea $361/ton, up $6.
On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.39/lb.N, anhydrous $0.26/lb.N, UAN28 $0.38/lb.N and UAN32 $0.40/lb.N.
Global fertilizer demand has remained strong in 2020 despite the COVID-19 pandemic. This strength is expected to remain in 2021.
This was the conclusion of CRU Senior Analyst for Potash Humphrey Knight. He spoke last week in The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) webinar titled "US Fertilizer Jobs and the Impact of COVID-19 on the Fertilizer Market."
London-based CRU is forecasting flat to positive demand growth for urea, phosphates and potash in 2020. Urea is predicted to be up 0.9% year-on-year, phosphates up 1.5% year-on-year and MAP up 0.2% year-on-year.
It is not all positive for the fertilizer industry in 2020, Knight said. Nitrogen, for instance, has large industrial downstream uses, which were affected much more than agricultural uses.
In general, however, fertilizer has outperformed other commodities, he said. Metals markets have, in contrast, seen significant demand destruction due to the pandemic, with manganese down 6%, aluminum down 6.7% and metallics down 5.9%.
"Fertilizer demand has been fairly resistant," Knight said.
In many countries the fertilizer industry has been deemed an essential market, which has helped considerably, he said. In addition, crop prices have remained at or are slightly above where they started 2020.
Feedstock (energy) prices for fertilizer fell during the beginning of the pandemic, which kept fertilizer prices stable and demand high, he said. Nitrogen feedstock prices fell to multi-year, or even record, lows during this time, even in high-cost producing regions including Europe and China.
Knight said fertilizer demand globally in 2021 looks to remain fairly robust. He prefaced this by saying there are still "massive risks" associated with a worldwide pandemic, but the outlook looks to be positive for global crop nutrients.
The forecast for 2021 shows stronger demand for urea and potash and flatter demand in the phosphate market. Urea is predicted to increase 1% year-on-year while potash is thought to rise 4% year-on-year. Phosphates could be down slightly at 0.1% year-on- -year, according to CRU.
U.S. fertilizer demand is expected to remain under some pressure with fewer corn acres predicted in 2021, he said. There were 92 million acres planted in 2020, and in 2021 this number could be closer to 90 million acres.
"It could be just a little longer before we see the fertilizer market come back in the U.S. ultimately," he said.
Retail fertilizer prices continue to be considerably lower in price from a year ago. Anhydrous is 17% lower; UAN28 is 15% less expensive; both potash and UAN32 are 12% lower; urea is 11% less expensive, DAP is 9% lower, MAP is 5% less expensive and 10-34-0 is 3% lower from last year at this time.
DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.
DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.
Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.
|Sep 23-27, 2019||479||475||384||404|
|Oct 21-25, 2019||465||473||383||404|
|Nov 18-22 2019||456||466||381||387|
|Dec 16-20 2019||444||460||378||377|
|Jan 13-17 2020||433||444||375||357|
|Feb 10-14 2020||413||435||373||361|
|Mar 9-13 2020||407||432||370||377|
|Apr 6-10 2020||409||434||370||382|
|May 4-8 2020||413||433||370||388|
|Jun 1-5 2020||407||431||364||373|
|Jun 29-Jul 3 2020||406||427||361||357|
|Jul 27-31 2020||410||429||358||355|
|Aug 24-28 2020||430||435||352||355|
|Sep 21-25 2020||434||453||338||361|
|Sep 23-27, 2019||471||511||254||289|
|Oct 21-25, 2019||471||507||251||291|
|Nov 18-22 2019||472||496||245||284|
|Dec 16-20 2019||469||487||239||276|
|Jan 13-17 2020||470||487||237||275|
|Feb 10-14 2020||464||490||235||277|
|Mar 9-13 2020||466||490||235||278|
|Apr 6-10 2020||468||492||235||278|
|May 4-8 2020||468||492||237||280|
|Jun 1-5 2020||468||475||236||276|
|Jun 29-Jul 3 2020||468||461||233||272|
|Jul 27-31 2020||465||454||223||262|
|Aug 24-28 2020||464||442||219||258|
|Sep 21-25 2020||457||425||215||253|
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