DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue to be mixed, according to locations tracked by DTN for the fourth week of September 2020.

For the third week in a row, five of the eight major fertilizers were lower while the remaining three nutrients were higher. Yet none of the prices changed by a significant amount, which DTN designates as 5% or more.

The five fertilizers that are lower in price are potash with an average price of $338/ton, down $14; 10-34-0 $457/ton, down $7; anhydrous $425/ton, down $17; UAN28 $215/ton, down $4; and UAN32 $253/ton, down $5.

The three fertilizers that are slightly higher include DAP with an average price of $434/ton, up $4; MAP $453/ton, up $18; and urea $361/ton, up $6.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.39/lb.N, anhydrous $0.26/lb.N, UAN28 $0.38/lb.N and UAN32 $0.40/lb.N.

Global fertilizer demand has remained strong in 2020 despite the COVID-19 pandemic. This strength is expected to remain in 2021.

This was the conclusion of CRU Senior Analyst for Potash Humphrey Knight. He spoke last week in The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) webinar titled "US Fertilizer Jobs and the Impact of COVID-19 on the Fertilizer Market."

London-based CRU is forecasting flat to positive demand growth for urea, phosphates and potash in 2020. Urea is predicted to be up 0.9% year-on-year, phosphates up 1.5% year-on-year and MAP up 0.2% year-on-year.

It is not all positive for the fertilizer industry in 2020, Knight said. Nitrogen, for instance, has large industrial downstream uses, which were affected much more than agricultural uses.

In general, however, fertilizer has outperformed other commodities, he said. Metals markets have, in contrast, seen significant demand destruction due to the pandemic, with manganese down 6%, aluminum down 6.7% and metallics down 5.9%.

"Fertilizer demand has been fairly resistant," Knight said.

In many countries the fertilizer industry has been deemed an essential market, which has helped considerably, he said. In addition, crop prices have remained at or are slightly above where they started 2020.

Feedstock (energy) prices for fertilizer fell during the beginning of the pandemic, which kept fertilizer prices stable and demand high, he said. Nitrogen feedstock prices fell to multi-year, or even record, lows during this time, even in high-cost producing regions including Europe and China.

Knight said fertilizer demand globally in 2021 looks to remain fairly robust. He prefaced this by saying there are still "massive risks" associated with a worldwide pandemic, but the outlook looks to be positive for global crop nutrients.

The forecast for 2021 shows stronger demand for urea and potash and flatter demand in the phosphate market. Urea is predicted to increase 1% year-on-year while potash is thought to rise 4% year-on-year. Phosphates could be down slightly at 0.1% year-on- -year, according to CRU.

U.S. fertilizer demand is expected to remain under some pressure with fewer corn acres predicted in 2021, he said. There were 92 million acres planted in 2020, and in 2021 this number could be closer to 90 million acres.

"It could be just a little longer before we see the fertilizer market come back in the U.S. ultimately," he said.

Retail fertilizer prices continue to be considerably lower in price from a year ago. Anhydrous is 17% lower; UAN28 is 15% less expensive; both potash and UAN32 are 12% lower; urea is 11% less expensive, DAP is 9% lower, MAP is 5% less expensive and 10-34-0 is 3% lower from last year at this time.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Sep 23-27, 2019	479	475	384	404
Oct 21-25, 2019	465	473	383	404
Nov 18-22 2019	456	466	381	387
Dec 16-20 2019	444	460	378	377
Jan 13-17 2020	433	444	375	357
Feb 10-14 2020	413	435	373	361
Mar 9-13 2020	407	432	370	377
Apr 6-10 2020	409	434	370	382
May 4-8 2020	413	433	370	388
Jun 1-5 2020	407	431	364	373
Jun 29-Jul 3 2020	406	427	361	357
Jul 27-31 2020	410	429	358	355
Aug 24-28 2020	430	435	352	355
Sep 21-25 2020	434	453	338	361
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Sep 23-27, 2019	471	511	254	289
Oct 21-25, 2019	471	507	251	291
Nov 18-22 2019	472	496	245	284
Dec 16-20 2019	469	487	239	276
Jan 13-17 2020	470	487	237	275
Feb 10-14 2020	464	490	235	277
Mar 9-13 2020	466	490	235	278
Apr 6-10 2020	468	492	235	278
May 4-8 2020	468	492	237	280
Jun 1-5 2020	468	475	236	276
Jun 29-Jul 3 2020	468	461	233	272
Jul 27-31 2020	465	454	223	262
Aug 24-28 2020	464	442	219	258
Sep 21-25 2020	457	425	215	253

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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