DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail prices for most fertilizers continued their lower trend during the week including the last two days of 2019 and first few days of 2020, according to retailers surveyed by DTN.

Seven of the eight major fertilizers were lower in price compared to a month earlier. This broke a streak of five weeks in which all eight were lower.

Only one fertilizer was down a significant amount. Urea was down 5% compared to last month and had an average price of $363 per ton.

Six fertilizers had slight price declines from the previous month. DAP had an average price of $438/ton, MAP $446/ton, potash $376/ton, anhydrous $487/ton, UAN28 $238/ton and UAN32 $273/ton.

The remaining fertilizer, 10-34-0, had a minor price increase from a month ago. The starter fertilizer had an average price of $470 per ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.39/lb.N, anhydrous $0.30/lb.N, UAN28 $0.42/lb.N and UAN32 $0.43/lb.N.

As the calendar turns from 2019 to 2020, I thought it would be interesting to compare 2020 crop budgets to 2019 budgets and see where they had fertilizer prices pegged. Purdue University Extension's 2020 crop budget was put together in November 2019, so considering prices have continued to drop since then, the fertilizer price estimate could be even lower now.

The 2020 Purdue Crop Cost and Return Guide has fertilizer costs for corn production for average-productivity soils in continuous corn at $127 per acre, rotation corn at $116/acre, rotation soybeans $47/acre, wheat $74/acre and double-crop beans at $35/acre. This compares to the 2019 crop cost and return guide, done in December 2018, for average-productivity soils continuous corn at $137/acre, rotation corn at $126/acre, rotation soybeans at $51/acre, wheat at $81/acre and double-crop soybeans at $38/acre.

The difference between 2020 and 2019 crops budgets would be: for continuous corn -$10/acre, rotation corn -$10/acre, rotation soybeans -$4/acre, wheat -$7/acre and double-crop soybeans -$3/acre.

This is really not surprising given the direction of retail fertilizer prices during 2019. We saw price decreases during the year but no huge drops, so these slightly lower fertilizer estimates for the 2020 crop seems to be about right.

The 2020 Purdue Crop Cost and Return Guide can be found at https://ag.purdue.edu/….The 2019 Purdue Crop Cost and Return Guide can found at https://ag.purdue.edu/….

Retail fertilizers are mixed in price from a year ago. MAP is 16% lower, anhydrous is 15% less expensive, DAP is 14% lower, urea and UAN28 are both 11% less expensive, UAN32 is 10% lower and potash is 1% less expensive from last year at this time. In addition, 10-34-0 is 2% higher compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Dec 31-Jan 4 2019	508	533	381	407
Jan 28-Feb 1 2019	513	536	384	407
Feb 25-Mar 01 2019	511	535	386	404
Mar 25-29 2019	509	534	385	401
Apr 22-26 2019	497	530	388	408
May 20-24 2019	497	527	392	428
Jun 17-21 2019	496	532	392	435
Jul 15-19, 2019	497	532	392	430
Aug 12-16 2019	493	503	387	413
Sep 9-13 2019	486	482	385	407
Oct 7-11, 2019	472	473	383	403
Nov 4-8 2019	462	471	384	396
Dec 2-6 2019	445	463	379	381
Dec 30-Jan 3 2020	438	446	376	363
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Dec 31-Jan 4 2019	460	571	267	304
Jan 28-Feb 1 2019	468	585	271	313
Feb 25-Mar 01 2019	470	596	270	318
Mar 25-29 2019	470	597	269	318
Apr 22-26 2019	483	594	268	315
May 20-24 2019	487	595	270	314
Jun 17-21 2019	487	589	270	318
Jul 15-19, 2019	485	585	275	317
Aug 12-16 2019	475	543	258	295
Sep 9-13 2019	471	516	253	289
Oct 7-11, 2019	470	509	253	289
Nov 4-8 2019	473	499	249	289
Dec 2-6 2019	470	490	242	276
Dec 30-Jan 3 2020	470	487	238	273

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(AG/CZ)

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