DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

All Fertilizer Prices Lower Again

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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The average retail price of anhydrous was $488 per ton the fourth week of December 2019, down about 1.8% from $497 the fourth week of November. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continued to move lower the fourth week of December 2019, according to sellers surveyed by DTN. This several-months-long trend appears set to continue into the new year.

All eight of the major fertilizers were lower in price from the month earlier, but once again, none were substantially lower. DTN designates a significant price move as 5% or more.

DAP had an average price of $443 per ton, MAP $454/ton, potash $377/ton, urea $378/ton, 10-34-0 $469/ton, anhydrous $488/ton, UAN28 $240/ton and UAN32 $276/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.41/lb.N, anhydrous $0.30/lb.N, UAN28 $0.43/lb.N and UAN32 $0.43/lb.N.

With retail fertilizer prices on the decline for several months now, fertilizer retailers are looking forward to where prices could go into the new year. Prices could be fairly steady, retailers report.

Fred Butt, sales agronomist for Donovan Farmers Coop located in Donovan, Illinois, said spring will tell the story of how much anhydrous moves. Some were not being able to apply the fertilizer in the fall due to crops still in the field or wet field conditions.

Despite this potential issue, Butt said he doesn't believe nitrogen prices will move much come spring.

"Anhydrous retail is around the $500s, and UAN is around $0.45/lb. cost of nitrogen with little to drive it up or down," Butt said.

Butt said DAP prices have fallen so much that the Mosaic Company has seen its shares drop on the stock market despite plant shutdowns. (Last week's column had information about this situation: https://www.dtnpf.com/…) Longer term, P will probably trade pretty steadily, even into the spring, he said.

Much like N and P, potash prices will most likely be fairly steady as we head toward spring, as well, Butt added.

"When was the last time P and potash have sold for mostly the same money?" he asked.

Retail fertilizers are mixed in price from a year ago. MAP is 15% lower, anhydrous is 14% less expensive, DAP is 13% lower, UAN28 is 10% less expensive, UAN32 is 9% lower, urea is 7% lower and potash is 1% less expensive from last year at this time. In addition, 10-34-0 is 3% higher compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Dec 24-28 2018 507 533 379 407
Jan 21-25 2019 512 535 383 409
Feb 18-22 2019 512 536 385 404
Mar 18-22 2019 509 533 386 401
Apr 15-19 2019 504 531 388 404
May 13-17 2019 498 526 392 426
Jun 10-14 2019 497 527 392 434
Jul 8-12, 2019 497 532 392 431
Aug 5-9 2019 495 531 395 428
Sep 2-6 2019 491 488 387 408
Sep 30-Oct 4, 2019 476 474 384 404
Oct 28-Nov 1 2019 464 472 383 402
Nov 25-29 2019 456 465 381 386
Dec 23-27 2019 443 454 377 378
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Dec 24-28 2018 457 568 266 303
Jan 21-25 2019 467 584 270 313
Feb 18-22 2019 470 596 271 317
Mar 18-22 2019 470 597 270 318
Apr 15-19 2019 481 594 270 317
May 13-17 2019 487 595 267 311
Jun 10-14 2019 487 591 271 314
Jul 8-12, 2019 485 585 276 317
Aug 5-9 2019 491 580 272 320
Sep 2-6 2019 473 522 255 290
Sep 30-Oct 4, 2019 470 511 253 289
Oct 28-Nov 1 2019 468 503 251 291
Nov 25-29 2019 472 497 245 277
Dec 23-27 2019 469 488 240 276

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(AG/SK)

Russ Quinn