DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the first week of August 2019 show prices continue to be mixed. However, more fertilizer prices were lower than were higher compared to last month.

Five fertilizers were lower compared to the previous month with none down a significant amount, which DTN considers 5% or more. DAP had an average price of $495 per ton, down $2; MAP $531/ton, down $1; urea $428/ton, down $3; anhydrous $580/ton, down $5; and UAN28 $272/ton, down $5.

Three fertilizers were slightly higher compared to last month, but again, the move higher was fairly slight. Potash had an average price of $395/ton, up $3; 10-34-0 $491/ton, up $6; and UAN32 $320/ton, up $3.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.47/lb.N, anhydrous $0.35/lb.N, UAN28 $0.49/lb.N and UAN32 $0.50/lb.N.

U.S.-China trade tensions have had a negative effect on agriculture and fertilizer stocks. Dow Jones reported last week that fertilizer companies have come under pressure, highlighted by disappointing quarterly results from fertilizer manufacturer Mosaic Co.

Mosaic's stock slid 12% in early trading last Tuesday, its biggest one-day drop since July 2013. The company, which cut its full-year earnings forecast following severe flooding in the U.S. Midwest this spring, was the worst performer in the S&P 500 with shares heading for a fresh 52-week closing low.

Other fertilizer companies also saw significant losses last week. Nutrien Ltd. And CF Industries Holdings Inc. saw their stock price decline 4% and 0.5% respectively.

Weather issues, in addition to the trade woes, have also hurt fertilizer companies. Sales declined this spring as farmers in the Midwest faced persistent wet weather.

Heightening tensions between the world's two largest economies have sparked fears among some analysts and investors that the trade battle could hinder the decade-long U.S. economic expansion.

"We don't think a trade deal will get done before 2020, therefore we're recommending that investors stay away from trade-sensitive areas of the market such as agriculture even though these companies are getting cheap," Matthew Granski, director of strategy at Miracle Mile Advisors in Los Angeles, said in the article.

Trade and weather have already been weighing on the income of U.S. farmers, which have been hurt by lower overseas purchases of U.S. corn, soybeans and other crops. This is expected to crimp sales of fertilizer and farm machinery, according to Dow Jones.

All eight of the major fertilizers are now higher compared to last year with prices shifting higher. DAP is 2% higher, MAP is 5% more expensive, 10-34-0 is 10% higher, potash is 11% more expensive, UAN28 is 17% higher, both urea and UAN32 are now 18% more expensive and anhydrous is 20% higher compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Aug 6-10 2018	487	507	356	363
Sep 3-7 2018	488	514	358	366
Oct 1-5 2018	501	523	364	389
Oct 29-Nov 2 2018	506	528	366	408
Nov 26-30 2018	501	530	369	409
Dec 24-28 2018	507	533	379	407
Jan 21-25 2019	512	535	383	409
Feb 18-22 2019	512	536	385	404
Mar 18-22 2019	509	533	386	401
Apr 15-19 2019	504	531	388	404
May 13-17 2019	498	526	392	426
Jun 10-14 2019	497	527	392	434
Jul 8-12, 2019	497	532	392	431
Aug 5-9 2019	495	531	395	428
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Aug 6-10 2018	445	482	233	271
Sep 3-7 2018	446	480	232	271
Oct 1-5 2018	451	488	237	279
Oct 29-Nov 2 2018	457	505	245	285
Nov 26-30 2018	457	519	246	287
Dec 24-28 2018	457	568	266	303
Jan 21-25 2019	467	584	270	313
Feb 18-22 2019	470	596	271	317
Mar 18-22 2019	470	597	270	318
Apr 15-19 2019	481	594	270	317
May 13-17 2019	487	595	267	311
Jun 10-14 2019	487	591	271	314
Jul 8-12, 2019	485	585	276	317
Aug 5-9 2019	491	580	272	320

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(KD/BAS)

Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.