DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue to be higher across the board, according to prices tracked by DTN for the fourth week of September 2018. For the third week in a row, all eight major fertilizers were higher compared to a month earlier.

Urea once again posted a significant move higher, gaining 6% compared to the fourth week of August. The nitrogen fertilizer had an average price of $385 per ton.

The remaining seven fertilizers were all higher in price, but none were up a remarkable amount. DAP had an average price of $494/ton, MAP $520/ton, potash $361/ton, 10-34-0 $449/ton, anhydrous $493/ton, UAN28 $236/ton and UAN32 $278/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.42/lb.N, anhydrous $0.30/lb.N, UAN28 $0.42/lb.N and UAN32 $0.44/lb.N.

Higher fertilizer prices in August and September confirm expectations for rising fertilizer costs in 2019, said University of Illinois ag economist Gary Schnitkey in a recent post on the farmdocDaily e-newsletter.

"Current price increases suggest $15 per acre higher costs for corn and $5 per acre higher costs for soybeans," Schnitkey wrote. "Cost increases will end a string of yearly declines in fertilizer costs that began in 2012."

According to data from USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service, anhydrous ammonia prices in Illinois are close to $80 per ton higher for 2019 production than last year. Anhydrous prices averaged $512 per ton in August 2018 and $496 per ton in September 2018, with both prices above 2017 prices. The 2018 prices, however, are still below the average from 2009 through 2018.

Illinois' DAP prices are closer to $70/ton higher for 2019 production compared to 2018, according to University of Illinois data. The average DAP price in August 2018 was $488/ton, $55/ton higher than in the 2017 price of $433/ton.

DAP price for September 2018 was $506/ton, $80/ton higher than in 2017. As with anhydrous, DAP prices are below the 10-year average price of $528/ton for August and $535/ton in September.

Potash prices are near $35/ton higher for 2019 compared to 2018 in Illinois. Potash prices averaged $354/ton in August of 2018, $29/ton higher than the $325/ton price in 2017.

The September 2018 price was $357/ton, $37/ton higher than the $320/ton price in 2017. The 2018 potash price is also below 2009 to 2018 averages of $482/ton in August and $481/ton in September.

The data highlights a similar trend to what DTN's weekly price tracking indicates.

"Price declines could occur but should not be expected," Schnitkey wrote. "Historical price patterns suggest price increases and not price declines."

The entire report can be viewed at https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/….

All eight of the major fertilizers are now higher compared to last year with prices shifting higher in recent months. Potash is 4% higher, 10-34-0 is 9% more expensive, both DAP and UAN28 are 14% higher, both MAP and UAN32 are now 15% more expensive, urea is 20% higher and anhydrous is now 24% more expensive compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Sep 15-29 2017	432	453	348	321
Oct 23-27 2017	431	453	347	325
Nov 20-24 2017	435	460	342	338
Dec 18-22 2017	445	485	344	348
Jan 15-19 2018	456	491	345	355
Feb 12-16 2018	457	495	345	357
Mar 12-16 2018	466	503	350	368
Apr 9-13 2018	482	504	353	369
May 7-11 2018	483	505	354	366
Jun 4-8 2018	484	505	354	364
Jul 2-6 2018	485	504	354	366
Jul 30- Aug 3 2018	488	505	355	366
Aug 27-31 2018	487	513	357	365
Sep 24-28 2018	494	520	361	385
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Sep 15-29 2017	413	396	208	243
Oct 23-27 2017	407	393	205	262
Nov 20-24 2017	403	410	216	272
Dec 18-22 2017	405	461	218	254
Jan 15-19 2018	407	485	226	260
Feb 12-16 2018	415	492	230	264
Mar 12-16 2018	421	503	237	282
Apr 9-13 2018	427	510	241	275
May 7-11 2018	431	512	241	276
Jun 4-8 2018	440	503	241	276
Jul 2-6 2018	443	505	242	279
Jul 30- Aug 3 2018	443	498	242	279
Aug 27-31 2018	446	480	233	271
Sep 24-28 2018	449	493	236	278

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(KD/AG)

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