DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue to track higher, according to fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the third week of September 2018. All eight of the major fertilizers' increased from a month earlier.

One fertilizer, urea, made a significant 6% move higher compared to the third week of August. The nitrogen fertilizer had an average price of $384 per ton.

The remaining seven fertilizers were all higher in price compared to last month, but none were up a noteworthy amount. DAP had an average price of $494 per ton, MAP $520/ton, potash $362/ton, 10-34-0 $448/ton, anhydrous $494/ton, UAN28 $239/ton and UAN32 $278/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.42/lb.N, anhydrous $0.30/lb.N, UAN28 $0.43/lb.N and UAN32 $0.44/lb.N.

What happens in China usually affects the rest of the global fertilizer market, and fertilizer production is on the decline, according to Rabobank's September China Food & Agribusiness Monthly report.

Rabobank reported Chinese fertilizer production volume was at 28.4 million metric tons (mmt) in the first half of 2018, down by 6.5% year over year (YOY). Broken down by type of fertilizer, nitrogen fertilizer was pegged at 18.8 mmt and phosphate fertilizer was at 6.8 mmt, down 7.5% and 5.9% YOY, respectively. Potash rose by 2.9% to 2.9 mmt.

"Due to high manufacturing costs, domestic chemical fertilizers are less competitive in the global market, resulting in lower export volumes this year," the Rabobank report stated. In the first half of 2018, China exported 9.6 mmt of fertilizer, a decline of 15.2% from the previous year. The value of exports also declined 2.7% to $2.6 billion.

Chinese urea prices have been climbing since mid-August, with Rabobank reporting the export price at $279/metric ton (mt). It expects prices will remain firm over the next several months.

China's potash market is also strong. The 60% potash export price remains at $346/mt. India is ahead of China in potash import contract negotiations, and the FOB price is $290/mt, an increase of $50/mt compared to 2017.

"Considering the CNY (Chinese Yuan) depreciation and global potash supply, China's potash contract price is also expected to be higher than in previous years," the report stated.

In the U.S., all eight of the major fertilizers are now higher compared to last year with prices shifting higher in recent months. Potash is 5% higher, 10-34-0 is 8% more expensive, UAN32 is 12% higher, UAN28 is 13% more expensive, both MAP and DAP are now 15% higher and both anhydrous and urea are now 23% more expensive compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Sep 18-22 2017	429	452	345	312
Oct 16-20 2017	432	452	348	340
Nov 13-17 2017	435	459	342	339
Dec 11-15 2017	439	479	343	340
Jan 8-12 2018	456	491	346	352
Feb 5-9 2018	458	493	344	355
Mar 5-9 2018	463	503	349	367
Apr 2-6 2018	478	508	352	370
Apr 30-May 4 2018	485	505	353	368
May 28-June 1 2018	483	504	354	364
Jun 25-29 2018	485	505	354	364
Jul 23-27 2018	486	504	356	366
Aug 20-24 2018	487	514	356	364
Sep 17-21 2018	494	520	362	384
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Sep 18-22 2017	416	402	211	248
Oct 16-20 2017	413	397	205	262
Nov 13-17 2017	403	410	216	272
Dec 11-15 2017	403	434	218	256
Jan 8-12 2018	410	479	220	258
Feb 5-9 2018	415	492	227	261
Mar 5-9 2018	422	499	234	272
Apr 2-6 2018	425	508	239	274
Apr 30-May 4 2018	431	510	241	277
May 28-June 1 2018	439	504	241	276
Jun 25-29 2018	440	504	242	277
Jul 23-27 2018	442	501	243	279
Aug 20-24 2018	446	481	233	271
Sep 17-21 2018	448	494	239	278

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

(KD/AG)

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