DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail fertilizer prices continued to creep higher the first week of April 2018, according to retailers surveyed by DTN. This marks the fourth straight week that prices for most of the eight major fertilizers have been higher compared to last month.

However, for the third consecutive week, no fertilizer price was up a significant amount. DAP had an average price of $478 per ton, MAP $508/ton, potash $352/ton, urea $370/ton, 10-34-0 $425/ton, anhydrous $508/ton, UAN28 $239/ton and UAN32 $274/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.40/lb.N, anhydrous $0.31/lb.N, UAN28 $0.43/lb.N and UAN32 $0.43/lb.N.

Nitrogen prices in 2018 was the subject of an April 3 article titled "Nitrogen Prices, Rates Cuts and 2018 Fertilizer Costs" in the Farmdoc Daily newsletter from the University of Illinois. Author Gary Schnitkey wrote that, with nitrogen prices increasing in recent months, the fertilizer has now reached roughly the same level as what was seen in 2017.

Using USDA's Illinois Production Cost Report from March 29, anhydrous prices averaged $522 per ton in the state this year. This is more than $100 per ton higher than in September 2017 when the average price was $401 per ton.

"The $401 per ton is the lowest price in the history of anhydrous ammonia prices contained in the Illinois Production Cost Report," Schnitkey wrote.

"To achieve lower nitrogen fertilizer costs in 2018 than in 2017, many farmers will have to cut rates. Farmers who apply above agronomically recommended levels may consider reducing rates to save some money on inputs," he said.

Schnitkey pointed out that a 10-pound nitrogen application above the maximum return to nitrogen (MRTN) would require applications of 12.2 lbs. (a pound of anhydrous ammonia contains 0.82 lbs. of nitrogen) of anhydrous ammonia. At a $525-per-ton nitrogen price, this 12.2 lbs. of ammonia would have a cost of $3.20 per acre (12.2 lbs. x $525/ton / 2,000 lbs.).

"Farmers applying above MRTNs may consider reducing rates as a means of reducing costs while at the same time increasing expected returns from corn production," he wrote.

To read the entire report, visit http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/….

Five of the eight major fertilizers are now higher compared to last year with prices pushing higher in recent months. Anhydrous is now 1% higher, potash is 4% more expensive, urea is 5% higher and both DAP and MAP are 9% more expensive than last year.

The remaining three fertilizers are lower in price compared to a year prior. UAN32 is 2% less expensive while both 10-34-0 and UAN28 are 4% less expensive looking back a year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Apr 3-7 2017	438	466	338	354
May 1-5 2017	436	466	339	351
May 29-Jun 2 2017	436	471	340	339
Jun 26-30 2017	437	470	340	333
Jul 24-28 2017	434	462	338	308
Aug 21-25 2017	434	458	338	304
Sep 18-22 2017	429	452	345	312
Oct 16-20 2017	432	452	348	340
Nov 13-17 2017	435	459	342	339
Dec 11-15 2017	439	479	343	340
Jan 8-12 2018	456	491	346	352
Feb 5-9 2018	458	493	344	355
Mar 5-9 2018	463	503	349	367
Apr 2-6 2018	478	508	352	370
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Apr 3-7 2017	441	505	248	280
May 1-5 2017	436	508	247	280
May 29-Jun 2 2017	436	503	248	280
Jun 26-30 2017	435	484	238	268
Jul 24-28 2017	425	423	229	265
Aug 21-25 2017	419	417	216	248
Sep 18-22 2017	416	402	211	248
Oct 16-20 2017	413	397	205	262
Nov 13-17 2017	403	410	216	272
Dec 11-15 2017	403	434	218	256
Jan 8-12 2018	410	479	220	258
Feb 5-9 2018	415	492	227	261
Mar 5-9 2018	422	499	234	272
Apr 2-6 2018	425	508	239	274

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow Russ Quinn on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(BAS/AG)

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