DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- The collapse in fertilizer prices since 2014 should put an extra jingle in farm budgets next season. According to retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the fourth week of December, all prices closed 2016 with double-digit reductions year-over-year. This marks the second year in a row of retail price declines for all major nutrients monitored by DTN.

At year-end 2016, urea was 12% cheaper than a year earlier, DAP 13% less expensive, MAP 17% lower and potash 19% less expensive. UAN32 was 20% lower while both anhydrous and UAN28 were 21% less expensive and 10-34-0 was 23% lower compared to a year prior.

The two-year price corrections are even more impressive. Compared to the last week of December 2014, fertilizer price adjustments ranged from a discount of 24% on DAP to 37% on urea.

DAP averaged $431/ton at year-end 2016, MAP $443/ton, 10-34-0 $437/ton, UAN28 $217/ton and UAN32 $254/ton. Potash averaged $321/ton, urea $336/ton and anhydrous $466/ton. (In contrast, DTN's national average price for anhydrous at the same time in 2014 was $706/ton.)

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price at year-end 2016 was $0.37/lb.N, anhydrous $0.28/lb.N, UAN28 $0.39/lb.N and UAN32 $0.40/lb.N.

Those steep savings encouraged some growers to postpone 2017-crop fertilizer purchases, hopeful for the possibility of lower prices. However, other producers locked in part of their nutrient needs well before year end.

Mike Cooprider, a corn and soybean farmer from Jasonville, Indiana, said he has most of his fertilizer needs for the 2017 crop already committed and has for some time now.

"We locked in the plow down in the fall (phosphorus and potash) and the same price will carryover this spring," Cooprider told DTN. "We also have locked in and have two-thirds of the anhydrous paid for."

Cooprider also said he pre-purchased fertilizer that will be applied in the row and pop-up fertilizer already as well. He applied P and K this fall in their river-bottom ground and then tilled that ground. The remaining P and K will be applied this spring.

The early locking in of many input costs, such as seed costs and fertilizer, is something Cooprider normally tries to do. About the only input costs he still needs to purchase would be ag chemicals, which he said he was trying to figure out last week.

"This year it just made more sense [to buy early] because of lower input costs," he said. "Banks aren't paying much interest [on savings accounts] anyway."

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Dec 28-Jan 1 2016	494	531	398	383
Jan 25-29 2016	495	515	391	380
Feb 22-26 2016	477	492	373	371
Mar 21-25 2016	475	501	371	390
Apr 18-22 2016	477	502	366	388
May 16-20 2016	476	501	365	384
June 13-17 2016	469	496	359	367
July 11-15 2016	467	496	358	360
Aug 8-12 2016	453	482	344	345
Sept 5-9 2016	446	464	325	325
Oct 3-7 2016	438	451	312	315
Oct 31-Nov 4 2016	436	451	314	319
Nov 28-Dec 2 2016	435	445	318	331
Dec 26-30 2016	431	443	321	336
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Dec 28-Jan 1 2016	570	590	273	317
Jan 25-29 2016	571	569	271	317
Feb 22-26 2016	566	536	260	309
Mar 21-25 2016	561	569	276	312
Apr 18-22 2016	561	588	274	322
May 16-20 2016	558	588	274	321
June 13-17 2016	555	566	266	305
July 11-15 2016	538	547	266	306
Aug 8-12 2016	528	522	249	299
Sept 5-9 2016	478	502	228	274
Oct 3-7 2016	454	472	224	263
Oct 31-Nov 4 2016	452	471	244	262
Nov 28-Dec 2 2016	447	465	217	256
Dec 26-30 2016	437	466	217	254

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(MZT/AG)

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