DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail fertilizer prices continued to dip lower the first week of August 2016, with one exception, according to fertilizer retailers surveyed by DTN.

That one exception would be UAN32, which is slightly higher in price compared to a month earlier. The nitrogen fertilizer averaged $307 per ton.

The remaining seven major fertilizers' prices were lower in price compared to the previous month, but once again, none were down significantly. DAP averaged $459/ton, MAP $488/ton, potash $346/ton and urea at $349/ton. 10-34-0 was at $548/ton, anhydrous $552/ton and UAN28 $254/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.38/lb.N, anhydrous $0.34/lb.N, UAN28 $0.45/lb.N and UAN32 $0.48/lb.N.

Retailers report the summer fill activity has been almost nonexistent this growing season. Brent Hall, agronomy manager for South Central Cooperative located in Lacona, Iowa, said the normal summer fill activity for most retailers has been replaced by waiting out the market to see when the bottom is in the market.

"I think you really won't see much in new prices until maybe after Labor Day," Hall told DTN. "By then we will know what yields should generally be, and hopefully fertilizer prices will be established at that point."

Hall said he believes the fall price for fertilizers will most likely be lower than it was in the spring as commodity prices have continued to decline during most of this growing season. Where exactly fertilizer prices could be, however, is anybody's guess, he said.

One positive aspect to lower commodity prices and thus fertilizer prices is producers could have an opportunity to invest in building levels of fertilizer in their soils with less-expensive fertilizer. Hall added his home region of south-central Iowa should see above-average yields.

"You have fertilizer like potash, which is considerably less expensive compared to a year ago," he said. "I'm not worried about (fertilizer) demand because I think our producers will take the chance to build fertilizer levels this fall with decent crop yields and significantly lower fertilizer prices."

Based on DTN surveys, retail fertilizer prices remain double-digits lower compared to a year earlier.

Both UAN32 and 10-34-0 are 13% lower, MAP is 17% less expensive and both DAP and anhydrous are 19% lower than August 2015. UAN28 is 20% lower, urea is 25% less expensive and potash is 28% less expensive compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Aug 3-7 2015	567	591	482	464
Aug 31-Sept 4 2015	564	583	471	439
Sept 28-Oct 2 2015	561	573	450	424
Oct 26-30 2015	546	562	431	409
Nov 23-27 2015	543	556	422	397
Dec 21-25 2015	519	541	408	390
Jan 18-22 2016	495	520	392	381
Feb 15-19 2016	477	496	375	370
Mar 14-18 2016	477	499	369	390
Apr 11-15 2016	480	504	367	388
May 9-13 2016	476	502	366	385
June 6-10 2016	470	498	359	370
July 4-8 2016	469	496	359	361
Aug 1-5 2016	459	488	346	349
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Aug 3-7 2015	628	677	318	354
Aug 31-Sept 4 2015	602	659	304	349
Sept 28-Oct 2 2015	594	644	295	342
Oct 26-30 2015	583	638	292	334
Nov 23-27 2015	580	624	286	325
Dec 21-25 2015	571	608	277	330
Jan 18-22 2016	571	581	272	319
Feb 15-19 2016	565	538	259	309
Mar 14-18 2016	560	566	276	312
Apr 11-15 2016	560	587	273	318
May 9-13 2016	561	588	274	321
June 6-10 2016	556	569	267	310
July 4-8 2016	546	554	261	304
Aug 1-5 2016	548	552	254	307

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

(MZT/AG)

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