DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail prices for fertilizers continued to move lower the last week of June 2016, according to fertilizer retailers surveyed by DTN. This marks three weeks in a row fertilizer prices have been notably lower.

All eight of the major fertilizers were lower in price compared to the previous month. However, the only fertilizer to show a significant move was UAN32. The liquid nitrogen fertilizer was down 5% compared to the previous month and had an average price of $304 per ton.

The remaining seven fertilizers were lower in price from last month, but their moves were fairly small. DAP had an average price of $468/ton, MAP $495/ton, potash $358/ton, urea $365/ton, 10-34-0 $554/ton, anhydrous $566/ton and UAN28 $266/ton

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.40/lb.N, anhydrous $0.34/lb.N, UAN28 $0.47/lb.N and UAN32 $0.48/lb.N.

China's potash inventory is expected to remain high for the rest of 2016, which will decrease imports and depress the global potash price, according to a Dow Jones article. China is the largest potash consumer in the world with 27% of the global demand, which means changes in Chinese imports would have an effect on global potash prices.

China's imports of potash declined by 10% year-on-year (yoy) to 3.0 million metric tons (mmt) in the first five months of 2016 with total import value dropping 17%. The average import price is at a historical low.

Fitch Ratings told Dow Jones it believes the high inventory is primarily associated with weaker domestic demand, rising domestic output and aggressive imports in previous years. China imported 8 mmt of potash in 2014 and 9.4 mmt in 2015, which represented growth of 33% yoy and 17% yoy.

In addition, China's domestic potash output in 2015 rose by 8.6% yoy to around 9.5 mmt. Fitch said they expect China's domestic production to remain high as the Chinese government has a target of achieving 70% self-sufficiency in potash fertilizer production by 2020, compared to 60% now, Dow Jones reported.

Retail prices for all fertilizers are now double digits lower compared to a year ago. 10-34-0 is 14% lower while MAP is 17% less expensive. DAP and UAN32 are both 18% lower. Both anhydrous and UAN28 are 20% lower while urea is 22% lower. Potash is 27% less expensive compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The weekly charts are cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
June 29-July 3 2015	570	596	490	469
July 27-31 2015	569	594	487	469
Aug 24-28 2015	567	586	476	447
Sept 21-25 2015	562	575	454	428
Oct 19-23 2015	547	562	435	413
Nov 16-20 2015	545	559	424	403
Dec 14-18 2015	532	544	410	392
Jan 11-15 2016	495	521	391	381
Feb 8-12 2016	479	499	378	369
Mar 7-11 2016	477	494	372	378
Apr 4-8 2016	480	504	369	387
May 2-6 2016	475	502	366	385
May 30-June 3 2016	473	499	363	375
June 27-July 1 2016	468	495	358	365
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
June 29-July 3 2015	642	705	330	369
July 27-31 2015	636	689	324	354
Aug 24-28 2015	609	667	309	350
Sept 21-25 2015	589	646	297	343
Oct 19-23 2015	582	637	291	334
Nov 16-20 2015	579	629	287	332
Dec 14-18 2015	571	612	279	331
Jan 11-15 2016	572	581	272	319
Feb 8-12 2016	569	551	261	303
Mar 7-11 2016	562	541	262	312
Apr 4-8 2016	561	586	272	315
May 2-6 2016	560	589	274	321
May 30-June 3 2016	559	579	268	313
June 27-July 1 2016	554	566	266	304

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

(MZT/CZ)

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