DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Not much movement is being seen in retail fertilizer prices with bids continuing to trade in a narrow range for the third straight week, according to DTN's latest retail fertilizer survey.

Four fertilizers edged higher while the other four fertilizers were lower compared to last month, DTN's survey from the last week of April found. None of the four fertilizers moved by any significance. MAP averaged $502 per ton, anhydrous $587/ton, UAN28 $274/ton and UAN32 $321/ton.

The remaining four fertilizers were down compared to the month earlier, but again the move was slight. DAP averaged $476/ton, potash $366/ton, urea $560/ton and 10-34-0 $560/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.42/lb.N, anhydrous $0.36/lb.N, UAN28 $0.49/lb.N and UAN32 $0.50/lb.N.

Tight crop margins have small grain and corn farmers less interested in applying fertilizer in North Dakota, according to one fertilizer retailer. Jim Maier, who owns and operates Dakota Grain Company located in Elgin, North Dakota, said while he doesn't know how much farmers will ration use this growing season, he believes less will be applied in his home region of south-central North Dakota.

"I think we are going to see less fertilizer applied this spring here, mainly in the form of less phosphorus (P) and potash (K)," Maier told DTN. "With $4/bushel wheat and $3/bushel corn, guys are going to really struggle to be profitable this year."

Confirming that trend, fertilizer manufacturer Mosaic Co. reported this week that first-quarter sales of both potash and phosphorus products were running about 25% below year-earlier levels.

Maier said he thinks fertilizer prices will be fairly steady for the rest of this spring application season. There already has been some recent $5-per-ton price decreases, but he doesn't see prices moving too far in either direction, he said.

Longer term, fertilizer prices could remain steady to perhaps decrease some for the next growing season. He said he didn't hear of any local farmers not getting financing from their banks for this growing season, but he does have some concerns about the next growing season if commodity prices do not increase.

"I really do think fertilizer prices next fall will have to be lower, short of higher grain prices," he said. "Farmers are struggling to breakeven this year, I can't imagine what it will be like if we have this same situation next growing season."

Despite recent price stability, fertilizers remain significantly lower compared to a year earlier. All fertilizers are now double digits lower.

UAN32 is 13% lower, 10-34-0 is 14% less expensive, urea is 15% less expensive and MAP is 16% lower from a year ago. In addition, DAP is 17% lower, both anhydrous and UAN28 are 18% less expensive and potash is 26% lower.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer prices in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Apr 27-May 1 2015	571	598	492	455
May 25-29 2015	570	597	492	459
June 22-26 2015	572	597	490	469
July 20-24 2015	569	594	487	469
Aug 17-21 2015	568	587	477	448
Sept 14-18 2015	563	579	462	432
Oct 12-16 2015	547	564	440	418
Nov 9-13 2015	547	561	426	405
Dec 7-11 2015	534	555	417	397
Jan 4-8 2016	495	521	392	381
Feb 1-5 2016	488	502	381	370
Feb 29-Mar 4 2016	476	492	373	374
Mar 28-Apr 1 2016	478	501	370	386
Apr 25-29 2016	476	502	366	386
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Apr 27-May 1 2015	652	711	332	371
May 25-29 2015	650	710	332	371
June 22-26 2015	641	690	330	369
July 20-24 2015	636	689	324	354
Aug 17-21 2015	611	667	309	349
Sept 14-18 2015	593	653	300	345
Oct 12-16 2015	584	640	295	338
Nov 9-13 2015	581	631	289	332
Dec 7-11 2015	575	625	284	330
Jan 4-8 2016	572	582	273	316
Feb 1-5 2016	549	555	263	305
Feb 29-Mar 4 2016	566	537	260	309
Mar 28-Apr 1 2016	561	580	268	315
Apr 25-29 2016	560	587	274	321

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

(MZT/AG)

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