Ag Economy Under Pressure
A Farmer Vents and High-Level Blame: Frustration Over Ag Economy Boiling Over in Social Media and White House
OMAHA (DTN) -- Iowa farmer Lance Lillibridge's frustration over markets, media coverage and USDA reports finally boiled over Tuesday afternoon with a self-proclaimed social media "rant" defending President Donald Trump and questioning some narratives about commodity prices, inputs and USDA reports.
In just the past couple of days, the former president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association said in an interview his post on Facebook has viewed more than 600,000 times. It has generated nearly 500 comments and more than 1,600 shares as well. An Iowa congresswoman asked Lillibridge to make a video about it. "I told her I would do it as long as she got it in front of Trump."
Lillibridge's comments reflect the widespread anger among farmers who are facing their third straight year of negative returns on their crops, but also overwhelmingly support President Trump. Farmers are coping with low prices, high inputs and closed export markets in the middle of this harvest and partial government shutdown.
TRUMP BLAMES BIDEN
At a Cabinet meeting on Thursday in the White House, President Trump blamed former President Joe Biden for farmers again needing an aid package that could cost $10 billion to $15 billion. Trump recalled the trade agreement he signed with China that committed it to buy $40 billion in agricultural goods. Trump said Biden never pressed China to honor the deal.
"Every problem the farmer has is because Biden didn't do anything for four years," Trump said.
Agricultural exports to China peaked at $38 billion in 2022, the second year of Biden's administration, before declining to $24.4 billion in 2024. China stopped buying U.S. soybeans and other commodities earlier this year after Trump began raising tariffs on Chinese imports.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins echoed Trump's comments, blaming the Biden era for farmers' market challenges, but said trade deals are coming and she repeated her messaging that the country is headed for "an era of rural prosperity, of a golden age for our farmers in rural America."
Rollins then said some form of aid package is coming, though she did not provide specifics. "We've got to get the government reopened so we can move forward on that," she said.
It should be noted that a year ago Congress had already recognized farmers were facing a significant price decline and debating whether there should be an aid package. That $10 billion package that became the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) was passed last December as one of the last acts signed into law by Biden.
DEFENDING BIDEN RECORD
In an email to DTN, former Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said of the current administration's criticisms, "Happy to remind folks of the Biden record for farmers, ranchers and producers; or perhaps I should say records of the Biden administration as in:
1. Record net cash farm income;
2. Record exports of agricultural products including sales of soybeans to China;
3. Record investments in sustainable agriculture commodities, in independent meat and poultry processing capacity, fertilizer production capacity, conservation programs, local and regional food systems, renewable energy and renewable fuel infrastructure resulting in more, new and better markets for our farmers and ranchers."
Biden's administration led the country out of the pandemic healthcare and economic crisis. Through that, net farm income hit a record level in 2022 at $182 billion, as did U.S. farm export value at $196 billion.
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Ohio farmer Christopher Gibbs, president of the group Rural Voices USA, also pushed back on the Trump administration's narrative.
"For the president to blame the severe cash flow and working capital crisis that farmers are experiencing today on the previous administration is preposterous," Gibbs said.
He pointed to the loss of sales to China and high input prices that are partially due to tariffs applied on traditional trading partners. The tariffs have increased costs for fertilizer, repair parts, machinery and other raw materials, Gibbs said.
"This is deja vu all over again from 2018 and '19," he said.
Gibbs said there is some irony that an aid package would be paid for using tariff dollars that would largely come from the higher costs farmers paid for their inputs.
"That said, the Trump administration was elected in a resounding rural vote on the promise that there would be new markets," he said. "On a daily basis, Secretary Rollins continues to blow sunshine up my pant legs that we farmers are a national security interest -- which we are -- and that we're on the precipice of a golden age of agriculture. That may be, but farmers have to deal with the here and now."
China's purchases remain at zero. "So, we have no upside in this market," Gibbs said.
Politico on Thursday quoted the president of the U.S.-China Business Council saying Chinese officials have made it clear they will not buy U.S. soybeans until Trump removes the tariffs placed on China over fentanyl.
PRICES SIMILAR TO LAST YEAR
In his Facebook post, Lillibridge noted he is "going to catch a little flack" but Lillibridge then went on to point out soybean prices are nearly identical to a year ago. "Last year no one was hollering about it and Trump wasn't POTUS either. The year before they were nearly $16. So what's the deal? In my opinion it's the media! They all want to talk about Trump's tariffs are destroying soybean farmers ..."
Corn and soybean prices are remarkably close to what they were last year. A year ago, DTN's National Corn Index listed the cash average at $3.89 a bushel while soybeans were $9.55. That compares to $3.81 and $9.52 on Thursday. On the CME, the December corn contract was $4.21 a year ago and closed at $4.18 on Thursday. November 2024 soybeans were $10.20 and this year's contract closed at $10.22 on Thursday.
Also, average cash prices this week in 2023 were $4.57 for corn and $12.05 for soybeans, DTN's indexes show.
STUBBORNLY HIGH INPUT COSTS
Lillibridge laid some of the blame on farmers' current financial stress by pointing to high input prices and lack of competition among suppliers.
In his Facebook post, he stated there was not enough reporting by the mainstream media on high input prices and whether farmers were being ripped off. "The monopoly of inputs suppliers has led to market manipulation that has caused great financial harm to farmers! Constant consolidation of these companies removes any competition in the ag space and then companies can't wait for an ag bailout because they scoop it up with higher input prices," Lillibridge wrote.
In late September, USDA and the Department of Justice signed a memorandum of understanding to investigate competitive issues in the agricultural supply chain. The two agencies will share information on pricing in areas "such as feed, fertilizer, fuel, seed, equipment, pesticides, and other essential goods," the MOU states.
An economist for the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), in the group's Market Intel report, similarly highlighted how crop prices have fallen since 2022 while input prices have continued to climb. Production expenses are projected at $467 billion, which is 12% higher than the five-year average.
That message was reiterated earlier this week when more than 200 farm groups wrote President Trump calling for additional assistance. "Crop prices are low, while input costs have increased substantially in recent years. According to USDA, per-farm production expenses are up almost 40% since 2020," the letter stated.
USDA REPORTS DON'T HELP
Farmers may have gotten a reprieve on Thursday with the government shutdown that suspended monthly Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.
"USDA has done more financial harm over the years than all of the input companies put together," Lillibridge said. "They just keep getting it wrong."
After complaining in the past about USDA reports, Lillibridge said he and others had agreed to work with officials to improve some processes, but they never made much headway with USDA's statistical leaders.
"When it was all said and done, the USDA stuck their chest out and said how wonderful they were and that, you know, their methodologies are the best that's ever been," he said. "So that's why you keep getting it wrong every year."
There's a tendency early in a crop reporting year for USDA to project large crops, only to later scale back production and ending stock projections.
"You affect that market, not only for bushels that are left in the bin, but going into the fall in the new crop," Lillibridge said. "That's hurting us and what's going to happen is they're going to come back and correct it and say, 'Well because of disease and stuff, which we couldn't foresee, that why we're now going to change this ... Well, what about the 90 cents you robbed from us when you couldn't foresee the (southern) rust, which nobody could? You need to quit speculating."
HELP BEYOND SOYBEANS
While soybeans and the lack of any market-year sales to China have drawn more media attention than other market problems, a potential financial aid package also should help a much broader range of producers, Lillibridge said. He again stressed the issues with inputs.
"It'd be great to be selling China soybeans," he said. "That would be fantastic. But that's still not going to solve the fundamental problem that we have. And I don't think until we focus on what that problem is, we're never going to fix it. We don't have a chance."
Lance Lillibridge's Facebook Rant: https://www.facebook.com/…
See, "ASA President Fears Losing China Market, Seeks a Level Playing Field With Brazil," https://www.dtnpf.com/…
Also see, "Grain Storage Crunch Looms as Record Harvest Challenges Farmers, Elevators," https://www.dtnpf.com/…
Also see, "As Trade Freeze With China Continues, North Dakota Farmers Face Basis, Storage Pressures," https://www.dtnpf.com/…
Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com
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