Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $2.93, up 9 cents for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) and major (long-term) trends remain down, the cash market's 5-year and 10-year seasonal indexes show a tendency to move higher through the end of the month. National average basis (versus the September 2015 futures contract) of 79 cents was 2 cents weaker from the previous Friday's calculation.

Corn (Futures): The December contract closed 10.75cts higher. Technical indicators show the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up, in line with the market's 5-year and 10-year seasonal indexes. In initial resistance is pegged near $3.84 1/2, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $5.17 through the recent low of $3.18 1/4.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $8.63, up 12 cents for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) and major (long-term) trends remain down, stochastics for both (weekly, monthly respectively) show the cash market to be sharply oversold and nearing a bullish crossover. Seasonally, both the 5-year and 10-year indexes show the cash market tends to rally through the end of October. National average basis strengthened by 2 cents last week, calculated last Friday at 60 cents under the November contract.

Soybeans (Futures): The November contract closed 10.25cts higher. Weekly stochastics established a bullish crossover last week, hinting at a possible move to a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. However, the November contract failed to close a bearish gap between $9.54 3/4 and $9.56, posting a high of $9.55 before falling back late in the week. This could move the contract into a sideways trend with support at the recent low of $9.04.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.54, up 16 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) is up, in line with the market's 5-year seasonal index. If the cash market can build bullish momentum its initial upside target remains near $5.20.

SRW Wheat (Futures): The December Chicago contract closed 12.75cts higher. Last week's higher close extended the recently established secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, a move that is in line with its 5-year seasonal index. The initial upside target is at $5.65 3/4, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $7.65 through the recent low of $4.66 1/4.

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