DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

May corn closed down 1 3/4 cents per bushel and December corn was down 1 1/4 cents. May soybeans closed down 3 1/2 cents and November soybeans were down 3 1/2 cents. May K.C. wheat closed down 6 1/2 cents, May Chicago wheat was down 5 1/2 cents and May Minneapolis wheat was up 6 cents. The June U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.015 at 96.065. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 19.03 points at 25,867.90. April gold is down $0.40 at $1,302.50, May silver is up $0.01 at $15.33 and May copper is up $0.0040 at $2.9100. April crude oil is up $0.58 at $59.10, April heating oil is up $0.0031, April RBOB is up $0.0299 and April natural gas is up $0.058.

Corn:

May corn closed down 1 3/4 cents at $3.71 1/2 Monday, showing no further concerns from traders over the recent flooding in the Western Corn Belt. That does not mean all is well, as the damage to roads, bridges, fields, bins and in some cases elevators, is serious and widespread. With the flooding so early in the year, it is difficult to quantify just how big of an impact recent events will have on corn's bottom line in 2019 and traders look reluctant to get out ahead of others' estimates. The five-day forecast is mostly dry for the central U.S., helpful to bringing down flood levels. In the Northern Plains, however, conditions will turn wetter this week as warm temperatures bring snowmelt. In the meantime, corn-crop conditions remain favorable in Brazil and Argentina. On the demand side, the pace of corn inspections continues to slow after a strong early start. USDA said 31.3 million bushels (mb) of corn were inspected for export last week, putting total inspections up 26% in 2018-19 from a year ago. Friday's CFTC data looked bullish for corn with commercials net long 66,192 contracts and managed funds holding their largest net-short position on record. For now, the trend in cash corn is sideways. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.45 Friday, 28 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest price in over three months. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher and other commodities are mixed.

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed down 3 1/2 cents at $9.05 3/4 Monday, pulling back partly from Friday's 10 3/4 cent gain. Trade negotiations with China continue with no breakthrough reported yet, but it is interesting that reports in China's media have sounded optimistic and the Shanghai Composite Index has rallied 27% from its low in late December. May soybean futures continue to chop within a narrow, sideways range, showing no inclination to take a direction yet. Earlier Monday, USDA said 30.9 mb of soybeans were inspected for export last week, bringing the 2018-19 total to 1.017 billion bushels (bb), down 31% from a year ago. Friday's CFTC data showed commercials net long 103,279 contracts of soybeans, a sign of support for soybeans at current prices in spite of the uncertainty of trade talks with China. For now, the trend in cash soybeans remains sideways. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.22 Friday, 87 cents below the May contract.

Wheat:

May K.C. wheat closed down 6 1/2 cents Monday at $4.36 1/2. The bulk of winter wheat areas in the southwestern U.S. Plains were not as affected by recent flooding as areas more to the north, but the SRW wheat crop in the eastern Midwest remains vulnerable to this spring's excessively moist conditions. The five-day forecast is drier for the central U.S. with rain expected in the Southern Plains over the weekend. May Minneapolis wheat is up 6 cents as warmer temperatures are expected to melt snow in the Dakotas and Minnesota this week, possibly adding to flooding concerns. Earlier Monday, USDA said 13.0 million mb of wheat were inspected for export last week, another low number that helps explain why inspections are down 6% in 2018-19 from a year ago. Friday CFTC report showed commercials net long 43,978 contracts of Chicago wheat, a sign of support near May Chicago wheat's lowest prices in a year. With U.S. wheat supplies plentiful and the uncertainty of a new growing season ahead, the trends in cash HRW and SRW wheat remain down, while the trend in cash HRS wheat is holding sideways. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.26 Friday, 17 cents under the May contract and up from its lowest prices in a year. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.37, also up from its lowest prices in a year.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman

(CZ)

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