DTN Closing Livestock Comments

GENERAL COMMENTS: As severe storms move into parts of cattle feeding country, some earlier-than-normal cash business has developed in Nebraska and Iowa. Light trading took place Wednesday morning with live deals marked at $127, $1 lower than last week's weighted average. Dressed business is generally steady at $203 to $204. According to the closing report, the national hog base was $2.42 higher ($42-$52, weighted average $49.61).Corn futures barely budged, closing 3/4 cents higher. The stock market closed higher, up 19 points on the S&P 500.

LIVE CATTLE: A sense that the live cattle futures charts may have topped out after a four-month-long rally may be giving packers some leverage this week to press cash prices lower or no better than last week's results. However, there is some logistical urgency this week to work around yet another winter storm system. Winter weather concerns helped drive the April contract to its March 1 high of $130.450, and maybe this latest batch of winter weather helped the market bounce upward in a mild recovery of Tuesday's volatile losses. Beef cut-outs: lower, off $0.09 (choice, $228.13) to $0.36 (select, $219.99).

THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1 lower. The early light volley of Northern business this week took place at $127 live/$204 dressed. Southern business has yet to get started, and asking prices remain elusive.

FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder cattle futures contracts closed the Wednesday session anywhere from $0.250 higher in the dwindling March contract to $0.275 lower in the April contract. The volume of calves actually coming through sale barns, where prices should provide some reference transactions for these futures markets, is typically limited at this time of year, and it's especially limited during a week like this one, with trucking tasks challenged by mud and bad weather across the Plains. CME cash feeder index for 3/12: $139.08, up $0.06.

LEAN HOGS: Panicky short-covering on the part of lean hog futures speculators continues to drive prices upward this week, especially in the deferred summer and fall contracts, when the full effects of African swine fever losses in China are most likely to spill over into the U.S. pork market. The October contract posted its fifth straight trading session of upward movement, and Wednesday's gain was the largest yet: up $1.875. Since last Thursday's close, this market has so far rallied more than 7%. Carcass values took another step higher Wednesday, although the daily gains in the ham and belly primals have finally started to slow down after multiple days of gaining roughly $2 per day. Pork cut-out: $67.85, up $0.23. Hams were up only $0.08, and bellies were up only $0.01. CME cash lean index for 03/11: $52.38, up $0.40 (DTN Projected lean index for 03/12: $53.12, up $0.74).

THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Carcass values continue to climb higher, but the pace of the daily gains have slowed. Estimated daily slaughter (468,000) and week-to-date slaughter (1,420,000) are running only slightly larger than year-ago levels.

Elaine Kub can be reached at elaine@masteringthegrainmarkets.com

(CZ)

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