DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

May corn closed down 7 1/4 cents per bushel and December corn was down 6 cents. May soybeans closed up 1/2 cent and November soybeans were down 1/4 cent. May Kansas City wheat closed down 11 cents, May Chicago wheat was down 11 3/4 cents and May Minneapolis wheat was unchanged.

The March U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.641 at 97.440. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 181.27 points at 25,492.19. April gold is down $1.00 at $1,286.60, May silver is down $0.05 at $15.04 and May copper is down $0.0045 at $2.9140. April crude oil is up $0.35 at $56.57, April heating oil is down $0.0061, April RBOB is up $0.0179 and April natural gas is up $0.015.

Corn:

May corn tumbled lower a second day, ending down 7 1/4 cents at $3.65 1/4 Thursday as prices are having a difficult time finding support while facing larger crops down south. Earlier Thursday, USDA said export sales and shipments of corn totaled 38.2 million bushels (mb) and 29.3 mb respectively, putting total export commitments down 1% from a year ago. Much of the recent bearish pressure in corn prices can be traced to Brazil where crop conditions are looking good for the safrinha crop. The FOB price of corn in Paranagua, Brazil is at $4.12, the lowest price in more than a year, and 24 cents a bushel below the comparable price at New Orleans. Here in the U.S., the early outlook for corn planting is not so good with heavy precipitation in the seven-day forecast for much of the central U.S. -- areas that are already saturated. Friday's WASDE report is not expected to show much change from February's estimates, but a surprise is always possible. Thursday's lower close turned the trend of cash corn prices to down. There were 2,485 contracts of March corn still open early Thursday, one week before contracts expire. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.42 Wednesday, priced 31 cents below the May contract. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.58 at a new contract high after the European Central Bank lowered its GDP growth estimate for the EU from 1.7% to 1.1%, reported RTTNews.com.

Soybeans:

May soybeans traded both sides of Wednesday's close and ended up a half-cent at $9.02 1/2 Thursday, biding time ahead of Friday's WASDE report and while trade talks continue. Earlier Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales totaled just 11.4 mb and shipments were 36.1 mb, putting total export commitments down 18% from a year ago. As total soybean export commitments are typically 90% complete this time of year, the current total projects to 1.603 billion bushels (bb) for 2018-19 -- still well below USDA's export estimate of 1.900 bb and assuming no cancellations or unshipped bushels. Granted, this is no typical year and traders wait to see if the U.S. and China can work out a new trade agreement that gets rid of China's 25% tariff on U.S. soybeans. As DTN Contributor Tregg Cronin mentioned in Early Word Grains, Brazilian rains are creating transportation problems as the soybean harvest nears its half-way mark. Muddy highways are nothing new to Brazil, however, and soybeans find their way to ports eventually. For now, both cash and futures soybean prices remain in sideways trends, staying shy of their highest prices in eight months. Trading in March soybeans is getting thinner with 1,734 contracts still open as of early Thursday. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.11 Wednesday, priced 91 cents below the May contract.

Wheat:

May K.C. wheat fell 11 cents Thursday to $4.27 1/2, a new contract low ahead of Friday's WASDE report. USDA said early Thursday last week's wheat export sales and shipments both, totaled 22.8 mb, higher than they have been recently, but still struggling to reach USDA's export estimate of 1.000 bb. The seven-day forecast expects heavy precipitation amounts for much of the central U.S., including areas for hard red winter (HRW) wheat and soft red winter (SRW) wheat. While the moisture will likely benefit crops in the western wheat region, it will not be so welcome to wheat areas east of Kansas and Oklahoma where fields are already saturated. It is still early in 2019, but this combination of late winter/wet spring is putting winter wheat crops at risk, so it will be interesting to monitor as the season progresses. Friday's WASDE report is not likely to show much change from February's estimates, but a reduction in wheat's export estimate is possible. With U.S. wheat supplies plentiful and the uncertainty of a new growing season ahead, the trends in cash HRW and SRW wheat are down, while the trend in cash hard red spring (HRS) wheat remains sideways. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.18 Wednesday, 21 cents under the May contract and near its lowest prices in a year. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.24, near its lowest prices in 11 months. Trading in March contracts of wheat is dangerously thin with few contracts still open.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman

(CZ)

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