DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

May corn closed up 1 cent per bushel and December corn was up 1 1/2 cents. May soybeans closed down 2 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 2 1/4 cents. May Kansas City wheat closed up 8 1/4 cents, May Chicago wheat was up 7 1/4 cents and May Minneapolis wheat was up 3 1/2 cents.

The March U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.140 at 96.750. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 4.36 points at 25,824.01. April gold is down $0.30 at $1,287.20, May silver is up $0.04 at $15.15 and May copper is up $0.0280 at $2.9370. April crude oil is down $0.02 at $56.57, April heating oil is down $0.0004, April RBOB is up $0.0184 and April natural gas is up $0.018.

Corn:

May corn ended up a penny at $3.75 3/4 Tuesday, a quiet day of trading on unusually low volume. The main constraint on corn prices lately is coming from favorable growing conditions in South America as more beneficial rains are expected in this week's forecasts for both Brazil and Argentina. Here in the U.S., early planting is out of the question as much of the Midwest remains covered with snow and bitter cold temperatures, while severe weather hit the Southeast Monday night. USDA's next WASDE report is set for Friday and old-crop estimates for U.S. corn are not likely to show much change. There will be some attention on crop estimates down south after USDA predicted 94.6 million metric tons (mmt) (3.72 billion bushels) for Brazil and 46.0 mmt (1.81 bb) for Argentina in February. For now, the trend of cash corn prices is sideways. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.43 Monday, priced 32 cents below the May contract. Outside markets were friendly for grains Tuesday with a majority of other commodities showing small gains.

Soybeans:

May soybeans were down 2 1/4 cents at $9.13 3/4 Tuesday, continuing to keep a low profile while traders wait for the U.S. and China to reach a new deal on trade. USDA's WASDE report on Friday is not apt to show much change for USDA's domestic soybean estimates, but a surprise is always possible, and the uncertainty could be enough to make traders cautious this week. In February, USDA estimated Brazil's soybean crop at 117.0 mmt (4.30 bb) and there is a chance the estimate could be trimmed a little more on Friday. In Argentina, the soybean crop is doing much better this year and we'll see if USDA still expects 55.0 mmt or 2.02 bb of production, up from 37.8 mmt (1.39 bb) the previous year. The way things are looking now in the U.S., significant soybean planting is still a long way off and much will depend on how well corn planting goes this spring. For now, both cash and futures soybean prices remain in sideways trends, staying shy of their highest prices in eight months. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.25 Monday, priced 92 cents below the May contract.

Wheat:

May K.C. wheat closed up 8 1/4 cents Tuesday at $4.51 1/4, while May Chicago wheat gained 7 1/4 cents. Tuesday was one of the better days that winter wheat prices have had since falling to new contract lows in February. Part of Tuesday's gain may have come from commercials, responding to wheat's cheaper prices as Friday's CFTC report showed commercials slightly net long as of Feb. 19. Part of that may have been a delayed response to the threat of possible damage to crops from this week's colder temperatures, spurring light, noncommercial short-covering. The bearish concerns for wheat, however, have not gone away and Friday's WASDE report is likely to show another U.S. ending stocks estimate of a billion or more bushels and a sluggish export pace. With wheat supplies plentiful in the U.S. and the uncertainty of a new growing season ahead, the trends in cash hard red winter (HRW) wheat and soft red winter (SRW) wheat are down, while the trend in cash hard red spring (HRS) wheat remains sideways. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.22 Monday, 21 cents under the May contract and near its lowest prices in a year. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.30, near its lowest prices in 11 months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman

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