DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

May corn closed up 1 3/4 cents per bushel and December corn was up 1 1/2 cents. May soybeans closed up 4 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 4 3/4 cents. May K.C. wheat closed down 1 3/4 cents, May Chicago wheat was down 1 3/4 cents and May Minneapolis wheat was down 6 1/4 cents.

The March U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.190 at 96.640. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 281.03 points at 25,745.29. April gold is down $10.90 at $1,288.30, May silver is down $0.15 at $15.11 and May copper is down $0.0225 at $2.9095. April crude oil is up $0.44 at $56.24, April heating oil is up $0.0056, April RBOB is up $0.0113 and April natural gas is down $0.005.

Corn:

May corn ended up 1 3/4 cents at $3.74 3/4 Monday, finding cautious encouragement from more talk that a trade deal with China appears to be getting closer. Late Sunday, the Wall Street Journal reported the two sides are close and even though hurdles remain, unnamed sources told the Journal Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping may meet near March 27. Earlier Monday, USDA said 34.1 million bushels (mb) of corn were inspected for export last week, putting total inspections up 36% in 2018-19 from a year ago. USDA also said nearly 4.0 mb (100,500 metric tons) of U.S. corn were sold to Colombia for 2018-19. Looking ahead, corn exports are likely to run into more competition as crop weather remains mostly favorable in Brazil and Argentina at this time. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials lightened net-long positions, from 98,302 to 35,832 as of Feb. 19. For now, the trend of cash corn prices is sideways. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.41 Friday, priced 32 cents below the May contract. Except for row crops and energies, most commodities were lower Monday, along with lower trade in the Dow Jones Industrials.

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed up 4 1/2 cents at $9.16 Monday, also benefitting from reports that the U.S. and China continue to make trade progress. In spite of the more optimistic tone of trade talks, soybean prices have held within a narrow, sideways range as there is no guarantee yet than an agreement will be secured. Friday's CFTC data for Feb. 19 showed noncommercials increased net shorts to 28,319, while commercials increased net longs to 70,488 -- a vote of confidence for soybeans' value at these prices. The next CFTC update will come out Tuesday afternoon. Brazil's soybean harvest has been making progress ahead of schedule and the International Grains Council tweeted Monday that it expects Brazil to export 7.0 million metric tons (mmt) (257 mb) of soybeans in March, a fairly aggressive pace. Here in the U.S., USDA said 31.0 mb of soybeans were inspected for export last week, putting total inspections down 33% in 2018-19 from a year ago. For now, both cash and futures soybean prices remain in sideways trends, staying shy of their highest prices in eight months. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.19 Friday, priced 93 cents below the May contract.

Wheat:

May Kansas City wheat ended down 1 3/4 cents Monday at $4.43, while May Chicago wheat was also down 1 3/4 cents. There is unconfirmed talk that a new trade agreement with China may also include some wheat purchases from the U.S., but until traders have reason to believe there could be a significant dent to roughly 1 billion bushels of U.S. ending wheat stocks, wheat prices are not willing to show much response. Earlier Monday, USDA said 16.2 mb of wheat were inspected for export last week, putting total inspections down 7% in 2018-19 from a year ago. The calendar may say March, but Monday morning saw single-digit temperatures reach into the southern U.S. Plains, putting areas of both, hard red winter (HRW) wheat and soft red winter (SRW) wheat at risk of damage from the cold. Monday's prices however, showed little concern and are still near contract lows. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials net short 14,034 contracts as of Feb. 19, while commercials are lightly net long. With wheat supplies plentiful in the U.S. and the uncertainty of a new growing season ahead, the trends in cash HRW and SRW wheat are down, while the trend in cash hard red spring (HRS) wheat remains sideways. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.21 Friday, 24 cents under the May contract and near its lowest prices in a year. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.31, near its lowest prices in 11 months

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman

(BAS)

Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.