DTN Closing Grain Comments
Soybeans Get Modest Boost From Weather Concerns
General Comments:
March corn was up 3/4 cent and December 2019 corn was up 3/4 cent. March soybeans were up 12 cents and November 2019 soybeans were up 8 1/2 cents. March K.C. wheat closed up 3 3/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 3 1/2 cents, and March Minneapolis wheat was up 5 cents. The March U.S. dollar index is up 0.81 at 96.55. February gold is down $0.10 at $1,281.20 while March silver is down 3 cents and March copper is down $0.0185. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 51 points at 23,378. February crude oil is up $1.25 at $46.66. February heating oil is up $0.0272 while February RBOB gasoline is up $0.0299 and February natural gas is down 2.7 cents.
Corn:
March corn remains difficult to budge lately and ended up 3/4 cent at $3.75 3/4 Wednesday. It would be reasonable for corn prices to benefit from concerns about hot and dry conditions in south-central Brazil, but bids have been stingy while the U.S. government remains partially closed and is not publishing export sales information. The seven-day forecast has light to moderate rain amounts expected for the south-central region while temperatures remain hot. FOB corn prices at Brazil's ports are 20 cents above those in New Orleans, but have backed down from six-month highs made in mid-December. Seasonally speaking, cash corn prices tend to trade higher until early June, but this appears to be a flat spot of little trading activity. Cash corn currently is priced near the midpoint of this year's expectations and the trend remains up. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.42 Monday, down from its highest price in six months and 33 cents below the March contract. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is up 0.81 after a manufacturing index for the Eurozone showed slower activity in December. Congressional leaders meet with President Donald Trump Wednesday afternoon to negotiate an end to the government shutdown.
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Soybeans:
March soybeans closed up 12 cents at $9.07 Wednesday, getting a modest boost from concerns of more hot and dry weather ahead for the south-central region of Brazil. Recent rain amounts have been on the lighter side of forecasts and the ridge supporting hot and dry weather is expected to return after several days of chances for light to moderate showers. Just how much of the 2019 soybean crop is being lost is up for debate, but it seems reasonable to say Brazil will not achieve a record crop this time around. Here in the U.S., soybean demand remains a bearish concern this winter and with the federal government not releasing information about export sales, traders are more in the dark than usual. Cash soybeans are doing well to hold above $8.00 as a national average and an FOB price of $9.33 in New Orleans indicates some export demand. For now, the trend in cash soybean prices is sideways with a bearish fundamental outlook and more uncertainty than usual, due to trade negotiations with China. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.01 Monday, down from its highest level in four months and $0.94 below the March contract. Among January contracts early Wednesday, there were 1,109 delivery intentions for soybeans, 514 for meal and 835 for soybean oil.
Wheat:
March K.C. wheat traded higher most the day and ended up 3 3/4 cents at $4.92 1/2 on a little higher volume, still not far from the lowest prices of 2018. U.S. wheat prices are now low enough to be more competitive internationally, but without the federal government reporting export sales, it is difficult to know if the U.S. is attracting any more business of any significance. With wheat in the Northern Hemisphere dormant, there is not a lot happening on the production side. Technically, both March K.C. and Chicago wheat contracts are holding above their November lows, while cash prices may be finding support. The trends in cash HRW and HRS wheat are sideways, while the trend in cash SRW wheat remains up. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.58 Monday, down from a three-month high and 31 cents below the March contract. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.78 Monday, down from its four-month high.
Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com
Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1
(CZ)
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