DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

March corn was down 1 1/2 cents and December 2019 corn was down 3/4 cent. January soybeans were down 7 cents and November 2019 soybeans were down 4 1/4 cents. March K.C. wheat closed down 1 3/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 6 cents, and March Minneapolis wheat was down 6 1/4 cents. The December U.S. dollar index is up 0.66 at 97.14. February gold is down $4.60 at $1,248.00 while March silver is down 11 cents and March copper is down $0.0360. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 82 points at 24,307. January crude oil is down $1.44 at $51.17. January heating oil is down $0.0347 while January RBOB gasoline is down $0.0635 and January natural gas is up 0.113.

Corn:

March corn ended down 1 1/2 cents at $3.84 Monday, still near its highest prices of the past three months, but not getting much of a boost from Monday's bullish export news ahead of Tuesday's WASDE report. Earlier Monday, USDA said 34.5 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, less than the previous week, but enough to put total inspections up 76% from a year ago. USDA also said 64.8 million bushels (1,645,920 mt) of U.S. corn were sold to Mexico, 43.5 million bushels (1,104,900 mt) for 2018-19 and the rest (541,020 Mt) for 2019-20. Twitter showed some out harvesting corn over the weekend and there will be more late opportunities this week, except for in the southeastern Midwest where more precipitation is expected. There is a chance of heavy rains returning to Argentina the next seven days with local flooding possible. For now, the trend in cash corn remains up during this quieter time of year, helped by active exports and a reluctance of farmer selling at current prices. The DTN National Corn Index closed at $3.49 Friday, at its highest price in five months and 36 cents below the March futures contract. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is up 0.66, benefitting from a weaker British pound and lack of support for U.K. Prime Minister May's Brexit plan.

Soybeans:

January soybeans dropped 7 cents to $9.09 3/4 Monday, reluctant to make new four-month highs until more is known about how trade negotiations are going with China. There continue to be unconfirmed rumors of large, impending purchases of U.S. ag products, but so far no confirmation of actual transactions. Earlier Monday, USDA said 33.9 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for export, a little less than the previous week and put total inspections down 41% from a year ago, still an extremely bearish pace. USDA also said 4.6 million bushels (125,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2019-20. For now, the trend in cash soybeans is up, helped by modest basis improvement, but also taking place in the face of a high-risk trade environment. The DTN National Soybean Index closed at $8.29 Friday, at its highest level in three months and $0.88 below the January futures contract. CFTC's Commitment of Traders report will be released Monday afternoon, due to President George H.W. Bush's funeral last week.

Wheat:

March K.C. wheat ended down 1 3/4 cents at $5.10 1/4 Monday, a quiet, low volume day of narrow-range trade ahead of Tuesday's WASDE report. U.S. wheat received some helpful export news late last week, but Monday's inspections were nothing to rave about with USDA inspecting 15.4 million bushels for the week ended Dec. 6. Total wheat inspections are currently down 16% from a year ago in 2018-19, showing slight improvement, but still far below USDA's estimate for a 14% gain. That presents one of Tuesday's bearish risks to wheat, which is that USDA could lower the export estimate. Dow Jones' survey however, only expects a 20 million bushel increase in USDA's 949 million bushel estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks. It will also be interesting to see if USDA makes any changes to this year's crop estimates outside the U.S. After a dip to lower HRW wheat prices in November, the trend for cash HRW wheat has turned sideways, while cash SRW and HRS prices are trending higher. The DTN National HRW Index closed at a new one-month high of $4.80 Friday, 32 cents below the March futures contract. The DTN National SRW Index closed at $4.98 Friday, a new three-month high. Trade in December wheat contracts has become dangerously thin, ahead of final trading day on Dec. 14.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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