Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Good weather conditions for Brazil and Argentina, limited precipitation for the next seven days for the Midwest, and a storm later this week bringing moisture for the winter wheat crop in the Southern Plains are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

DRYING TREND IN MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a drying trend in the Midwest lasting at least five to seven days that will help improve conditions for the final harvest effort. Lower temperatures help to firm the ground to help support the heavier equipment. However, there is a slight risk for snow in the southeast Midwest Saturday or early Sunday as a significant storm tracks by to the south.

MORE PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

The Southern Plains will have favorable conditions for winter wheat with adequate soil moisture in all areas. Colder weather this week will slow crop development. There continues to be opportunities to add to the soil moisture. Light rain or showers develop through southeast and south-central areas of Texas during Thursday or Thursday night. Moderate to heavy rain or showers and thunderstorms are forecast through central and east Texas, south and east Oklahoma during Friday and Friday night. There will be snow or rain changing to snow through the Texas Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma during this time, possibly reaching extreme southern Kansas. Ice is also a possibility with this system as far south as the west-Texas area and southwest Oklahoma. Precipitation may linger over Oklahoma and north Texas during Saturday. Snowfall during this period is likely to exceed 4 inches in the Texas Panhandle and may exceed 8 inches.

MAINLY FAVORABLE BRAZIL TREND

Wet weather in central Brazil raises concerns of increasing disease pressure to developing soybeans. However, during the next five days, the rains favor northeast Brazil crop areas, while Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul trend somewhat drier and warmer. The northeast, notably Bahia, will benefit from the rain. There's favorably drier weather in southern Brazil this week.

DRIER, WARMER FOR ARGENTINA

Favorably drier weather for planting and developing corn and soybeans will be seen in central Argentina this week. Some scattered frost in southern Buenos Aires on Sunday morning should not have caused any damage to crops. Warmer weather is expected during the balance of this week.

VARIABLE SOUTH AFRICA TRENDS

South Africa should be somewhat drier and hotter during the next two to three days. This is favorable for planting in areas that have adequate soil moisture. Delays continue for areas that are drier, especially in the western maize areas. This coming weekend looks to be wetter and cooler. It appears likely that eastern maize and key sugarcane areas will see beneficial rainfall. The southwestern maize areas may see only scattered light showers.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN EUROPE

An active weather pattern with above-normal temperatures helps to replenish soil moisture in key growing areas for winter wheat and rapeseed. This includes previously very dry areas in and around Germany. Later in the 10-day period, it is likely to turn cold and dry as the high latitude blocking ridge returns to Scandinavia and easterly winds develop to the south of this ridge.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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