DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

December corn closed down 2 3/4 cents and July corn was down 1 3/4 cents. January soybeans closed down 2 cents and July soybeans were down 2 cents. March K.C. wheat closed down 7 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 1/2 cent and March Minneapolis wheat was down 3/4 cent. The December U.S. dollar index is up 0.18 at 96.77. December gold is down $4.60 at $1,223.40 while December silver is down 26 cents and December copper is down 0.0330. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 157 points at 24,307. January crude oil is down $3.23 at $51.40. January heating oil is down $0.0676 while January RBOB gasoline is down $0.0949 and January natural gas is up $0.045.

For the week:

December corn closed down 5 3/4 cents and July was down 4 1/2 cents. January soybeans were down 11 1/4 cents while the July was down 10 1/4 cents. March Kansas City wheat was down 20 1/2 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 8 cents, and March Minneapolis wheat was down 2 1/4 cents.

Corn:

December corn ended down 2 3/4 cents at $3.59 Friday and was down over a nickel on the week. It's not surprising that trade was quiet in corn this holiday week as there wasn't a lot of news to push prices very far in either direction. Many are still working to finish the final rounds of harvest after a frustrating fall of wet weather and muddy fields. Friday's weather map has rain from Iowa to Louisiana, followed by chances for more rain/snow across the central Midwest this weekend. On the demand side, corn sales continue to slow from their stronger, earlier pace. USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 34.5 million and 32.9 million bushels respectively, putting total shipments up 83% from a year ago, while total commitments are up 13%. USDA later added 5.2 million bushels (132,000 mt) of U.S. corn were sold to South Korea for 2018-19. FOB corn prices in New Orleans have flat-lined at $4.20 a bushel, the same spot they were in early September. Seasonally, corn prices tend to rise gradually until early June, but the current trend has stalled out sideways. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.30 Wednesday, staying above the September low and 32 cents below the December contract, showing gradual basis improvement. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is up 0.18 with concerns about slower growth in Germany and the European Union, in general. Most commodities outside of ag are trading lower.

Soybeans:

January soybeans ended down 2 cents at $8.81 Friday and was down 11 1/4 cents on the week. Even though prices fell 18 1/2 cents Monday after the Pacific Rim summit ended on a sour note over the weekend, soybean prices continue to track sideways and so far, are holding narrowly above their 100-day average. Fundamentally, this market remains paralyzed by the uncertainty of the direction that U.S. soybean trade might take. The current stats for soybean exports are not encouraging and Friday's weekly update did not help. USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 25.0 million and 46.8 million bushels, respectively, putting total shipments down 42% from a year ago and total commitments down 32%. Going by soybeans' typical pattern, shipments are currently on track to fall short of USDA's export estimate by 788 million bushels -- a large bearish concern. USDA later said 4.4 million bushels (120,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown for 2018-19. As if that weren't bearish enough, crop conditions in Brazil remain mostly favorable with more rain in the seven-day forecast and Dow Jones reporting 89% of soybeans planted. Argentina's soybeans are 30% planted with a better forecast ahead. For now, soybeans continue to trade within a sideways range. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.94 Wednesday, still up from its lowest price in 11 years and priced $0.89 below the November contract, also showing gradual basis improvement.

Wheat:

March K.C. wheat finished the week with a fourth consecutive loss, closing down 7 cents at $4.86 Friday and dropping 20 1/2 cents on the week. March Chicago wheat did a little better, ending up a half-cent Friday after Dow Jones reported Egypt was expected to buy 4.4 million bushels (120,000 mt) of U.S. SRW wheat. While it is nice to see the U.S. show up in an Egyptian purchase, overall wheat exports remain well below USDA's estimated pace. Early Friday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 12.1 million and 18.5 million bushels, respectively, putting total shipments down 17% in 2018-19 from a year ago and total commitments down 15%. Mexico was listed as last week's top buyer of both, U.S. corn and wheat. This quieter time of year is all about exports, but so far, not much interest is being generated for U.S. wheat. The trends remain sideways for SRW and HRS wheat, but turned lower this week for HRW wheat. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.44 Wednesday, below its July low of $4.50 and down 25 cents from the December contract. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.68 Wednesday, up from its July low of $4.51. CFTC's Commitment of Traders report will be released Monday afternoon, due to this week's holiday.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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