DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

December corn was up 1/2 cent and July corn was up 1/2 cent. January soybeans were up 2 cents and July soybeans were up 2 1/4 cents. March K.C. wheat closed down 4 1/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 1 3/4 cents, and March Minneapolis wheat was up 1 3/4 cents. The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.16 at 96.55. December gold is up $6.60 at $1,227.80 while December silver is up 21 cents and December copper is up $0.0235. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 174 points at 24,639. January crude oil is up $1.47 at $54.90. January heating oil is down $0.0108 while January RBOB gasoline is up $0.0199 and January natural gas is down 0.031.

Corn:

December corn ended up a half-cent at $3.61 3/4 Wednesday, another quiet trading session on the day before Thanksgiving. Wednesday's weather map shows a mostly pleasant November day of clear skies and mild seasonal temperatures across the central U.S., favorable for remaining harvest activity. Thursday is also expected to be mostly dry, but chances for light to moderate precipitation return to the central and eastern Midwest on Friday into the weekend. Friday morning will have the next weekly update of export sales and the trend lately has been for lighter corn sales than what we saw earlier in the new season. New Orleans FOB corn price is 48 cents above spot futures, which is down from a 62-cent premium a year ago and a sign of slower export interest. In spite of the recent sag in corn prices, the trend remains sideways during this quieter time of year. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.30 Tuesday, well above its September low of $3.00 and priced 32 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is down 0.16, Dow Jones Industrials are up 174 points and commodities were mixed to mostly higher. U.S. grain futures resume trading at 8:30 a.m. CST Friday in what will be a shortened session.

Soybeans:

January soybeans ended up 2 cents at $8.83 Wednesday, holding in its narrow, sideways range as traders wait to see if the U.S. and China make any progress on trade this year. The G-20 meeting in Buenos Aires on November 30 is the next point of hope as U.S. President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet. If there is good news for soybean bulls, it is that soybean prices have managed to hold sideways since punching their new low back on Sept. 18, but keep in mind that total soybean export commitments are down 32% in 2018-19 from a year ago with almost no participation from China. The next weekly update of export sales will be released Friday morning at 7:30 a.m. CST and expectations are low for any significant change to the current sluggish pace. On the other hand, soybean oil export commitments are up 41% in 2018-19 from a year ago and January soybean oil posted the largest percentage gain in the grain sector Wednesday, closing up 0.47. In spite of all the uncertainty over trade, the trend in soybeans remains sideways. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.92 Tuesday, priced $0.89 below the January contract and still above the September low of $7.12.

Wheat:

March K.C. wheat fell 4 1/4 cents to $4.93 Wednesday, the third consecutive loss this week with noncommercials still under pressure to liquidate contracts taken in the summer when concerns about Europe's dry weather were fresh on their minds. The sell-off looks more dramatic in the futures market as cash HRW wheat prices are near seven-month lows, but well above their lows for this year and up over 70 cents from a year ago. The excessively wet fall in the Southern Plains may have its pros and cons for winter wheat as Wednesday's new U.S. Drought Monitor shows no drought in the major winter wheat region, but of course, some of this fall's intended wheat will not get planted as fields around Arkansas and Missouri were just too wet. As the northern Hemisphere heads to dormancy, cash SRW wheat and spring wheat prices continue to trend sideways, while the trend in cash HRW wheat has turned lower. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.47 Tuesday, 28 cents below the December contract and below support at $4.50. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.70 Tuesday and is still above its support.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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