DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

December corn was down 2 1/2 cents and July corn was down 2 1/4 cents. January soybeans were down 18 1/2 cents and July soybeans were down 17 1/2 cents. March K.C. wheat closed down 7 3/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 8 3/4 cents, and March Minneapolis wheat was down 4 cents.

The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.29 at 96.04. December gold is up $2.10 at $1,225.10 while December silver is up 1 cent and December copper is down $0.0015. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 498 points at 24,915. January crude oil is up $0.17 at $56.85. January heating oil is up $0.0051 while January RBOB gasoline is down $0.0033 and January natural gas is up $0.461.

Corn:

December corn ended down 2 1/2 cents at $3.62 1/4 Monday, pressed to the lower end of its sideways trading range of the past seven weeks as harvest likely made steady progress last week. Except for a narrow band of precipitation across southern Iowa over the weekend, the weather has been mostly dry and is expected to stay that way the next five days. On the demand side, USDA said 5.4 million bushels (mb) (138,000 metric tons) of U.S. corn were sold to South Korea for 2018-19. Later Monday morning, USDA said 31.4 mb of corn were inspected for export last week, a lower amount that still has total inspections up 80% from a year ago. Monday afternoon's report of harvest progress from USDA is likely to show corn in the low 90s, ahead of Thanksgiving. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.32 Friday, well above its September low of $3.00 and priced 33 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is down 0.29 with increased comments that slower world growth may ease the need for more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Outside commodities were mostly lower early, but mixed in early afternoon.

Soybeans:

January soybeans dropped 18 1/2 cents to $8.73 3/4 after AP reported over the weekend that strong disagreements between the U.S. and China prevented the Pacific Rim summit from reaching a joint statement for the first time in 29 years. It was not the news soybean bulls were hoping to hear after President Trump had been building expectations for a positive meeting on trade with China's President Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires on Nov. 30. While the lack of purchases from China remains the number one concern for soybeans, export activity remains sluggish. On Friday, USDA said U.S. soybean shipments are down 42% in 2018-19 from a year ago and Monday morning, USDA said last week's export inspections totaled 38.8 mb, down from the previous week and bearish enough to put total inspections down 43% in 2018-19 from a year ago. One bullish possibility for soybeans is that the U.S. harvest has been so difficult this fall, another crop estimate reduction is possible in January, but that is small potatoes, compared to the lack of export business. In spite of all the uncertainty over trade and Monday's lower close, the trend in soybeans remains sideways. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.02 Friday, priced $0.90 below the January contract and still well above the September low of $7.12.

Wheat:

March Kansas City wheat fell 7 3/4 cents to a new 2018 low of $4.98 3/4, taking cash HRW wheat prices below $4.50 for the first time in six months. It will be interesting later Monday to see if USDA notes any planting progress in winter wheat the past week. Very little planting seems likely at this late date, especially in Southern Plain states like Arkansas where weather has been hostile. Much of the focus this time of year is on the demand side of the market and in that regard, the pace of wheat exports remains sluggish, especially for HRW wheat. USDA did show an increase in last week's wheat inspections on Monday, but total inspections remain well below USDA's expectation for a 14% increase, at 18% below a year ago. Based on cash prices, SRW wheat and spring wheat continue to trend sideways, while the trend in HRW wheat turned lower on Monday's close. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.55 Friday, 28 cents below the December contract and holding above support at $4.50. Similarly, DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.75 Friday.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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