DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed up 6 3/4 cents in the December contract and was up 6 1/2 cents in the July. Soybeans closed up 3 1/4 cents in the November and up 2 3/4 cents in the July. Wheat closed up 13 3/4 cents in the December Kansas City, up 18 cents in the December Chicago, and was up 8 1/4 cents in the December Minneapolis. The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.32 at 96.13. December gold is up $4.70 at $1,243.30 while December silver is up 8 cents and December copper is down 0.0120. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 180 points at 24,804. December crude oil is up $0.31 at $67.64. December heating oil is up $0.0265 while December RBOB gasoline is up $0.0020 and December natural gas is down $0.030.

For the week:

December corn closed up 3/4 cent and July was up 1 cent. November soybeans were down 11 3/4 cents while the July was down 11 cents. December Kansas City wheat was down 16 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 9 1/2 cents, and December Minneapolis wheat was down 11 cents.

Corn:

December corn closed up 6 3/4 cents at $3.67 3/4 Friday, a dramatic and unexpected turnaround that salvaged a small 3/4-cent gain on the week. As grain prices go, corn continues to have the more-bullish outlook, thanks to a strong start to corn exports in 2018-19. On Thursday however, USDA's weekly report of 13.8 million bushels of corn sales was disappointing and it looks like noncommercials that jumped long into corn earlier in October threw in the towel as December corn fell 7 1/4 cents on heavy volume -- sales that they would like to have had back on Friday. Friday's weather map showed scattered showers east of the Mississippi River, but was drier to the west and helpful for harvest progress. The seven-day forecast expects a similar pattern with heavier rain amounts still causing problems in the Southern Plains and southeastern Midwest. The trend in corn remains up -- in line with its seasonal pattern. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.20 Thursday, staying above the September low and 41 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded over 400 points lower early, but is down 180 points early Friday afternoon. The U.S. Commerce Department said real GDP was up .9% in the third quarter and up 3.0% from a year ago, slightly higher than expected. Nominal GDP was up 5.5% from a year ago.

Soybeans:

November soybeans ended up 3 1/4 cents Friday at $8.45, taking advantage of Friday's lighter mood to trim the weekly loss to 11 3/4 cents. Fundamentally, there was no significant change for soybeans Friday, but it was helpful to have more-bullish influence from corn and wheat. December soybean meal also closed up $3.00, finding support near its September low of $303.80. Unfortunately for many of this year's soybean producers, crop quality remains a concern in areas that have seen too much rain at harvest time and the Mississippi Delta and southeastern Midwest have even more rain in the forecast. On the demand side, U.S. soybeans shipments are off to a slow start in 2018-19, down 35% from a year ago as China continues to mostly avoid the U.S. market. Earlier Friday, USDA said 9.6 million bushels (260,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations; 7.3 million bushels (200,000 mt) were for 2018-19 and the rest were for 2019-20. With plenty of concerns about U.S. soybean demand in the year ahead, soybeans are trading within a sideways range. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.43 Thursday, still up from its lowest price in 11 years and priced $0.99 below the November contract.

Wheat:

One day after closing at a new low for 2018, December K.C. wheat performed an about-face, closing up 13 3/4 cents on Friday at $5.00 1/4. Here in the U.S. winter wheat planting is a little behind its usual pace with some fields still wet and more rain in the forecast for the soft red areas. Ukraine and Russia benefited from rain this week and Europe has better rain chances the next five days. According to GrainCentral.com, ABARE reduced its wheat forecast for Australia's crop to 16.5 mmt, below USDA's current estimate of 18.5 mmt. In spite of Friday's higher prices, December K.C. wheat was still down 16 cents on the week, due largely to noncommercial liquidation and export disappointment. Technically, the trends remain down for both winter wheats and sideways for Minneapolis wheat, but it is fair to wonder if wheat has any more bullish surprises like Friday's left in the tank. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.51 Thursday, slightly above its July low of $4.50 and down 36 cents from the December contract. DTN's National SRW Index also closed at $4.51 Thursday, up slightly from its July low of $4.57.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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