DTN Early Word Grains
Grains Show a Higher Start Early Friday
December corn was up 2 cents, November soybeans were up 2 cents, and December K.C. wheat was up 7 cents.
CME Globex Recap:Stock markets are lower in Europe and are also influencing the Dow Jones futures lower early Friday, giving investors more to think about. Much of the commodity board is also trading lower early, but not the grain sector where prices have already come down this week and are off to a modestly higher start.
OUTSIDE MARKETS:Previous closes on Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 401.13 points at 24,984.55 and the S&P 500 up 49.47 points at 2,705.57 while the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 3.14%. Early Friday, DJIA futures were down 236 points. Asian markets are modestly lower with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 84.13 (-0.4%) and China's Shanghai Composite down 4.95 (-0.2%). European markets are also lower with London's FTSE 100 down 104.20 points (-1.5%), Germany's DAX down 190.72 points (-1.7%), and France's CAC 40 down 104.71 points (-2.1%). The euro was up .0009 and the U.S. dollar index was up 0.03 at 96.63. December 30-year T-Bonds were up 22/32nds while December gold was up $7.80 at $1,240.20 and December crude oil was down $0.79 at $66.54. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were modestly lower and Malaysian palm oil futures were down 1.1% to a new three-year low in the spot contract.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | This is the time of year when cash corn and soybean prices typically start to work higher and there has been slight strengthening in basis for both. | 1) | U.S. soybean shipments are down 35% in 2018-19 from a year ago as China largely stays away. |
| 2) | Soybean harvest delays may be masking crop problems not yet reflected in market prices. | 2) | Row crop harvest is making slow, but determined progress. |
| 3) | Both corn and soybean prices continue to trade above their September lows. | 3) | U.S. wheat exports are down 22% in 2018-19 from a year ago and December K.C. wheat posted a new low for 2018 on Thursday. |
CORN December corn is up 2 cents early Friday, with a possible case to be made for profit-taking after Thursday's 7 1/4 cent drop. Light to moderate showers are falling around central Minnesota, Illinois, and Indiana, expected to push eastward later in the day. The seven-day forecast shows a split of drier weather in the central and western Corn Belt, but more unwelcome rains around the Mississippi Delta and eastern Midwest. Outside markets likely have investors nervous, but grains appear somewhat protected, at least early Friday.
SOYBEANS November soybeans are up 2 cents early with help from a $1.70 gain in December soybean meal. December soybean oil is down 0.08 cent after spot palm oil prices fell 1% overnight to a new three-year low. Before Friday's trade, November soybeans were down 15 cents on the week, pressured by ongoing concerns about U.S. soybean demand and seeing some harvest progress. The southeastern Midwest continues to get too much rain at harvest time and more is on the way the next seven days. The central and western Midwest will have more chances for harvest in the week ahead. In Brazil, planting continues to go well with beneficial rains in the seven-day forecast. The International Grains Council said Thursday that it expects a 2% increase in Brazil's soybean plantings this fall. November soybeans are still up from their September low, but are restrained by a current lack of export business.
WHEAT December K.C. wheat is up 7 cents early, finding a quick response of buying after yesterday's close fell to a new low for 2018. In addition to a sluggish pace of U.S. wheat exports in 2018-19, Thursday's monthly report from the International Grain Council showed an increase in the estimate of world wheat production, from 717 to 729 million metric tonsand an increase in the estimate of world ending wheat stocks, from 250 to 262 mmt. Both are still down from the previous year, but not by the margins earlier expected. Here in the U.S., winter wheat planting will be helped by drier weather in the week ahead for the southwestern U.S. Plains, but wetter conditions will prevail in the soft red wheat region. Overall, wheat prices remain pressured by concerns of a lack of U.S. demand.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.20 | -$0.07 | -$0.41 | Dec | $0.006 |
| Soybeans: | $7.43 | -$0.09 | -$0.99 | Nov | $0.000 |
| SRW Wheat: | $4.51 | -$0.10 | -$0.36 | Dec | $0.018 |
| HRW Wheat: | $4.51 | -$0.10 | -$0.36 | Dec | $0.001 |
| HRS Wheat: | $5.17 | -$0.07 | -$0.53 | Dec | $0.018 |
Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com
Toddcan be followed throughout the day on Twitter @ToddHultman1
(KR)
Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.