DTN Early Word Grains
Stock Markets Lower Overnight
December corn was up 3/4 cent, November soybeans were down 4 1/4 cents, and December K.C. wheat was down 1/4 cent.
CME Globex Recap:Major stock markets were lower early Tuesday, weighed down by several concerns, including the U.S. trade war with China, disappointing earnings reports in Europe, concerns about Italy's debt, and increasingly strained relations with Saudi Arabia. Most commodities are also being influenced lower early, including grains.
OUTSIDE MARKETS:Previous closes on Monday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 126.93 points at 25,317.41 and the S&P 500 down 11.90 points at 2,755.88 while the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 3.20%. Early Tuesday, DJIA futures were down 294 points. Asian markets are lower with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 604.04 (-2.7%) and China's Shanghai Composite down 60.05 (-2.3%). European markets are also lower with London's FTSE 100 down 78.37 points (-1.1%), Germany's DAX down 275.78 points (-2.4%), and France's CAC 40 down 87.06 points (-1.7%). The euro was up .0009 and the U.S. dollar index was down 0.14 at 95.88. December 30-year T-Bonds were up 26/32nds while December gold was up $13.80 at $1,238.40 and December crude oil was down $1.06 at $68.30. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were moderately lower and Malaysian palm oil futures were down 1.0%.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | U.S. corn shipments are up 80% in 2018-19 from a year ago. | 1) | U.S. soybean shipments are off to a poor start as China has largely stayed away. |
| 2) | Soybean harvest delays may be masking crop problems. | 2) | Soybean planting is happening fast in Brazil, accompanied by beneficial rains. |
| 3) | U.S. soybean crush continues to be a consistent source of increased demand for soybeans in 2018. | 3) | U.S. wheat exports remain sluggish in spite of lower world production in 2018, down 25% from last year's dismal pace. |
CORN December corn is up 3/4 cent early Tuesday, a calm market surrounded by signs of investor nervousness. Once again, Tuesday morning's weather map looks mostly dry across the central U.S., favorable for harvest. USDA said late Monday that 49% of the corn crop was harvested, near its five-year average pace, but individual states varied with Iowa at only 29% complete. Light rains are expected in the western Plains Wednesday, which will move slowly eastward by the weekend. The most bullish aspect of corn prices remains the strong export start, but prices aren't seeing much benefit yet, especially with outside markets showing anxiety over several topics. For now, the trend remains up in corn.
SOYBEANS November soybeans are down 4 1/4 cents early, still pressured by concerns about U.S. soybean demand while China's official stance remains unmoved by U.S. tariffs. Monday afternoon's report on crop progress didn't reveal specific damage to this year's soybean crop, but it is possible that harvest delays are hiding more serious problems. USDA said 53% of soybeans were harvested, down from the five-year average of 69%. Harvests in Illinois and Indiana are ahead of schedule while most other large producing states are behind. Iowa soybeans are only 37% harvested versus a five-year average of 71% for this time of year, and there is a chance for light showers returning Thursday. November soybeans continue to hold above their September lows but are taking no strong direction at this time.
WHEAT December Kansas City wheat is down 1/4 cent early, staying in its sideways range and keeping a low profile as the Northern Hemisphere slowly heads toward winter. Late Monday, USDA said 72% of winter wheat was planted, slow progress after recent rains in the southwestern U.S. Plains. Kansas plantings increased to 67% from 62% the previous week. Meanwhile, the Canadian prairies have a better opportunity for spring wheat harvest this week while planting conditions remain dry in Europe and southern Russia. The recent downward slide in prices is pressuring noncommercial net-longs to liquidate, but so far, prices are still in a sideways range.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.28 | $0.02 | -$0.42 | Dec | $0.000 |
| Soybeans: | $7.59 | $0.02 | -$1.00 | Nov | $0.001 |
| SRW Wheat: | $4.69 | -$0.07 | -$0.38 | Dec | -$0.004 |
| HRW Wheat: | $4.71 | -$0.08 | -$0.36 | Dec | $0.003 |
| HRS Wheat: | $5.30 | -$0.02 | -$0.55 | Dec | $0.012 |
Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com
Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman
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