DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 3/4 cent in the December contract and up 1 cent in the July. Soybeans were down 1 cent in the November contract and down 1 cent in the July. Wheat closed down 1/4 cent in the December Kansas City contract, up 1 cent in December Chicago and down 1/2 cent in the December Minneapolis contract.

The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.10 at 95.64. December gold is up $11.80 at $1,236.40 while December silver is up 20 cents and December copper is down $0.0280. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 80 points at 25,237. December crude oil is down $3.20 at $66.16. December heating oil is down $0.0715 while December RBOB gasoline is down $0.0762 and December natural gas is up 0.064.

Corn:

December corn was a relative haven of tranquility Tuesday, ending up 3/4 cent at $3.70 1/4 on a day when major stock markets traded lower as did most commodity prices. Part of corn's protection on a day like this comes from the fact that cash prices are already cheap, having taken a beating in the summer. Two other factors helping protect corn prices are the harvest uncertainty caused by excessively wet fall weather and strong start of export demand in 2018-19. Late Monday, USDA said 49% of corn was harvested, near its five-year average pace, but efforts were notably behind in Iowa where just 29% of the crop was in. Tuesday's weather map is mostly dry again, but chances for light showers are expected in the western Plains Wednesday, moving eastward into the weekend and possibly adding to further delays. For now, the trend remains up in December corn, in line with its seasonal tendency. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials net-long 109,611 contracts, adding risk to the long side of the market. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.28 Monday, up from its September low and priced 42 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the Dow Jones Industrials are down 80 points after trading down 500 points earlier with ongoing concerns about the world economy. Most other commodities were also lower, once again reflecting a "risk-off" attitude among investors.

Soybeans:

November soybeans ended down a penny at $8.57 1/2 Tuesday, holding close to steady on light volume after USDA said Monday that 53% of soybeans were harvested as of Sunday, down from the five-year average of 69% for this time of year. As with corn, Iowa remains a concern with only 37% of soybeans harvested versus the usual pace of 71% by now. What is difficult to know is the extent of problems waiting in those unharvested fields. The more bearish side of the ledger for soybeans is well known by now as export demand is dragging in early 2018-19 with only minimal participation from China. Also weighing on prices, soybean planting in Brazil is going faster than usual with adequate moisture to help. For now, the trend remains up in November soybeans, in line with its seasonal tendency. Also supporting soybean prices, commercials are net-long 62,978 contracts as of Oct. 16. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.59 Monday, up from its lowest price in 11 years and priced $1 below the November contract, the weakest basis in at least 11 years.

Wheat:

After posting an 8 1/2 cent loss on Monday, December Kansas City wheat ended down a quarter-cent at $5.07 1/2 after a quiet day of trading on Tuesday. Late Monday, USDA reported modest progress in winter wheat planting as of Sunday with 72% of the crop now in the ground, down from a five-year average of 77% for this time of year. In Kansas, 67% of the crops are in, down from an average pace of 80%. Light-to-moderate rain is in the forecast for the southwestern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, likely adding to further delays. Outside the U.S., spring wheat harvest should be doing better in Canada this week and Senior Meteorologist Bryce Anderson pointed out that much-needed rain has entered this week's forecast for much of Europe. As we enter a less volatile time of year for wheat prices, December contracts for all three wheats remain in sideways ranges, holding above their July lows. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.71 Monday, holding above support at $4.50 and 36 cents below the December contract. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.69, also holding above support at $4.50.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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