DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 2 1/2 cents in the December contract and up 2 cents in the July. Soybeans were up 1 3/4 cents in the November contract and up 2 3/4 cents in the July. Wheat closed down 8 1/2 cents in the December Kansas City contract, down 6 3/4 cents in December Chicago, and down 3 1/4 cents in the December Minneapolis contract. The December U.S. dollar index is up 0.28 at 95.72. December gold is down $3.20 at $1,231.40 while December silver is down 5 cents and December copper is up $0.0055. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 112 points at 25,332. December crude oil is down $0.05 at $69.23. December heating oil is up $0.0169 while December RBOB gasoline is down $0.0071 and December natural gas is down 0.087.

Corn:

December corn traded higher most the day and closed up 2 1/2 cents at $3.69 1/2, pausing after last week's four-day slide lower. Last week's mostly drier weather continued over the weekend and should hold across the central U.S. the next seven days, while Texas has a chance for a few more days of rain. Harvest progress for corn will likely be near the five-year average pace in Monday afternoon's crop progress report from USDA after showing 39% harvested last week. On the demand side, factors remain bullish overall. Earlier Monday, USDA said 37.4 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, putting total inspections up 72% from a year ago. Demand for ethanol production is high, but remains a concern with inventories near their record high. Also, feed demand should continue to show steady growth with USDA expecting higher beef, pork, and poultry production in 2019. For now, the trend remains up in December corn, in line with its seasonal tendency. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials net long 109,611 contracts, adding risk to the long side of the market. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.25 Friday, up from its September low and priced 42 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is up 0.28 and other commodities are mixed. December cattle ended up $1.30, helped by less placements than expected in Friday's Cattle on Feed report.

Soybeans:

November soybeans also traded a little higher most of Monday and ended up 1 3/4 cents at $8.58 1/2 with better harvest progress set to take place this week. Last week's drier weather continued again over the weekend across much of the Midwest and should have another seven days left before rain chances increase in the central U.S. Monday afternoon's soybean harvest progress will show improvement from last week's 38%, but this coming week is ready to offer even more progress. On the demand side, USDA said 42.2 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for export last week, sending total inspections down 40% in 2018-19 from a year ago. After last week's bearish export sales numbers and Friday's cancellations, demand for U.S. soybeans remains a serious concern for 2018-19. Even so, the trend remains up in November soybeans, in line with its seasonal tendency. Also supporting soybean prices, commercials are net long 62,978 contracts as of October 16. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.57 Friday, up from its lowest price in 11 years and priced $1.00 below the November contract, the weakest basis in at least 11 years. A late note from USDA on Monday said the cancelled sale of 180,000 mt of U.S. soybeans for 2018-19 on Friday should have been for unknown destinations instead of China.

Wheat:

December K.C. wheat closed down 8 1/2 cents at $5.07 3/4 Monday, breaking out of a triangle congestion pattern that prices had been forming since early September. With Friday's CFTC data showing noncommercials holding 41,157 net longs, further downward pressure in prices appears likely. Monday afternoon's report of winter wheat planting progress is likely to look good for all states, except Texas after last week's rain. More rain is expected for Texas the next three days, but then should turn drier after Wednesday. Outside the U.S., the western Canadian Prairies have another week of beneficial harvest weather available while planting conditions remain on the dry side in Europe and southern Russia. Even with Monday's lower close, December contracts for all three wheats remain in sideways ranges, holding above their July lows. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.80 Thursday, up from its lowest price in two months and 37 cents below the December contract. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.76, also up from its lowest price in two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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