DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed down 3 3/4 cents in the December contract and was down 3 cents in the July. Soybeans closed down 6 3/4 cents in the November and down 6 1/4 cents in the July. Wheat closed up 1 1/2 cents in the December Kansas City, up 1 3/4 cents in the December Chicago, and was up 3 3/4 cents in the December Minneapolis. The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.21 at 95.42. December gold is down $0.40 at $1,229.70 while December silver is up 4 cents and December copper is up 0.0310. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 4 points at 25,375. December crude oil is up $0.46 at $69.17. December heating oil is up $0.0065 while December RBOB gasoline is up $0.0196 and December natural gas is up $0.055.

For the week:

December corn closed down 6 3/4 cents and July was down 5 cents. November soybeans were down 10 3/4 cents while the July was down 11 3/4 cents. December Kansas City wheat was down 8 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 2 1/2 cents, and December Minneapolis wheat was down 7 1/4 cents.

Corn:

December corn closed down 3 3/4 cents Friday and was down 6 3/4 cents on the week, pressured by this week's drier weather and, judging by pictures on Twitter, a return of combines to fields where not all conditions are excessively wet. To the disappointment of some, rain did return Friday to parts of the central Midwest that are already too wet and their wait to get back in fields continues. Thursday's report of 15.1 million bushels of corn export sales was nothing to brag about, but the overall pace remains strong in early 2018-19 with total commitments up 41% from a year ago. So far, new-crop conditions in South America have been generally favorable and, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 33% of Argentina's corn is planted. They did note Cordoba is in need of rain. With nearly half the U.S. corn crop probably harvested by this weekend, the trend in December corn remains up, in line with its seasonal pattern. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.28 Thursday, up from this year's low and 42 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trying to hold a small gain for the week and outside commodities are mostly higher.

Soybeans:

November soybeans ended down 6 3/4 cents Friday at $8.56 3/4, dropping 10 3/4 cent on the week and leaving behind Monday's short-lived gain of 24 cents. Quality concerns of soaked soybeans sitting in fields of excess rain or snow is what chased shorts away on Monday and crop quality is still a valid concern. At the same time, concerns about export demand for U.S. soybeans were not helped by Thursday's weekly report and on Friday, USDA reported a cancellation of a previous sale of 6.6 million bushels (180,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans to China for 2018-19. Also cancelled was an optional origin sale of 4.4 million bushels (120,000 mt) of soybeans to unknown for 2018-19. If all that were not bearish enough, soybean planting in Brazil is off to a quick start and early rain forecasts have been favorable. Monday's higher close turned the trend higher in November soybeans, but a sideways range looks more likely ahead. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.64 Thursday, up from its lowest price in 11 years and priced $1.00 below the November contract -- the weakest basis in at least 11 years.

Wheat:

December K.C. wheat ended up 1 1/2 cents Friday, helped by a show of light noncommercial buying at the end of a week which posted a loss of 8 cents. So far in October, December K.C. wheat has stayed within a narrow, 27-cent trading range, reminding us this is the time of year when trading typically turns quieter. As of Sunday, Texas still had 40% of its winter wheat crop to plant and probably made only limited progress this week due to all the rain. The rest of the southwestern U.S. Plains however, will likely show good progress in Monday's USDA report. Outside the U.S., dry conditions remain a concern for planting in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, but prices are in no hurry to respond this early in the new season. For now, the trends of all three wheats remain sideways, holding above their July lows. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.78 Thursday, up from its lowest close in two months and down 37 cents from the December contract. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.74 Thursday, also up from its lowest close in two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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