DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 3 3/4 cents in the December contract and down 3 1/2 cents in the July. Soybeans were down 7 cents in the November contract and down 6 1/4 cents in the July. Wheat closed down 5 1/4 cents in the December Chicago contract, down 3 1/2 cents in the December Kansas City, and up 3 cents in the December Minneapolis contract. The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.45 at 94.05. December gold is up $4.90 at $1,206.00 while December silver is up 8 cents and December copper is up $0.0080. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 37 points at 26,117. October crude oil is down $0.02 at $68.97. October heating oil is up $0.0027 while October RBOB gasoline is up $0.0133 and October natural gas is up 0.045.

CORN

December corn ended down 3 3/4 cents at $3.48 Monday, easing to a new contract low with a large, 14.8-billion-bushel crop expected this fall. Except for rain in eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota, Monday's map showed favorable harvest weather across most of the Corn Belt for crops that are ready. Later this week however, heavy rain is apt to interrupt harvest activity in the central and Eastern Corn Belt. On the demand side, USDA said 40.6 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, a bullish amount that put total inspections up 25% in 2018-19 from a year ago -- a brisk start to the new season. For now, December corn remains under harvest pressure and prices are pushing the low end of its sideways trading range. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.08 Friday, near its low in 2018 and priced 44 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is down 0.45 with China threatening to pull out of this month's trade talks when the U.S. enacts another $200 billion of new tariffs against Chinese goods.

SOYBEANS

November soybeans fell 7 cents to a new contract low of $8.23 1/2 Monday, still weighed down by expectations for a record soybean harvest of 4.69 billion bushels and lack of trade progress with China. The Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that President Donald Trump is ready to move ahead with a 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods. According to Dow Jones, China is saying they will likely pull out of trade talks, set for later this month if the new tariffs go through. Meanwhile, U.S. soybean exports are off to a slow start in the new season. USDA did say 8.86 million bushels (241,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans sold to unknown destinations for 2018-19, but total export inspections in the first 13 days of the new season were down 21% from a year ago. Monday afternoon's Crop Progress report from USDA will have the first showing of soybean harvest progress after last week's conditions were more favorable, but rain is likely to interrupt progress later this week in the north-central and eastern Midwest. While the anticipation of another record soybean harvest is clearly bearish, November soybean prices may not have a lot of downside risk left, already trading at their lowest level in over nine years amid plenty of trade uncertainty. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.29 Friday, at its lowest price in 11 years and priced $1.01 below the November contract, , the weakest basis in at least 11 years.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat closed down 5 1/4 cents at $5.06 1/4 Monday, a late sell-off after a quiet day of trading, while the new 2019-20 winter wheat crop is being planted. USDA will have an update of planting progress later Monday afternoon and no major problems are expected, but moderate to heavy showers in this week's forecast are likely to slow progress later in the week. Meanwhile, Western Australia experienced frost over the weekend, adding more reason to reduce the country's wheat crop estimate. Even though world wheat production is lower in 2018-19, the U.S. is still struggling to generate export business. Earlier Monday, USDA said 14.9 million bushels of U.S. wheat were inspected for export last week, putting total inspections down 30% in 2018-19 from the previous year's low total. For now, December contracts of all three wheats are holding sideways in a wide range. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.64 Friday, 48 cents below the December contract and near its lowest price in two months. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.75 Friday, up from its lowest price in two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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