DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed up 10 cents in the September contract and was up 8 1/2 cents in the December. Soybeans closed up 13 1/2 cents in the September and up 12 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 10 1/2 cents in the December Chicago, up 12 1/4 cents in the December Kansas City, and was up 15 cents in the December Minneapolis. The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.36 at 95.03. December gold is up $2.70 at $1,207.70 while December silver is down 3 cents and December copper is down 0.0475. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 81 points at 25,906. October crude oil is down $0.24 at $70.01. October heating oil is down $0.0065 while October RBOB gasoline is down $0.0035 and October natural gas is up $0.037.

For the week:

September corn closed up 2 1/2 cents and December was up 2 1/4 cents. September soybeans were down 9 cents while the November was down 11 3/4 cents. December Chicago wheat was up 9 cents, December Kansas City wheat was up 6 1/2 cents, and December Minneapolis wheat was up 8 1/2 cents.

Corn:

December corn ended up 8 1/2 cents at $3.65 Friday and was up 2 1/4 cents on the week, rescued by commercial buying after prices neared their lowest level of the year. This week saw an active rain pattern in the central and northern Midwest, which was mostly favorable or, at least, not damaging to row crops. Parts of Wisconsin and surrounding areas however, did have flooding problems, which are not welcome as we head into Labor Day weekend. On the demand side, new-crop corn sales are up 50% from last year's slow start and on Friday, USDA added 10.8 million bushels (273,800 mt) of U.S. corn sold to unknown for 2018-19. An outbreak of African swine fever in eastern China is a potential concern for grains, depending on how widely it may spread, but so far, it is having no significant impact on grain demand. With a big U.S. corn crop likely this fall, the trend in December corn remains sideways with the seasonal low typically seen around early October. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.09 Friday, near its low in 2018 and 47 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.36 with talk of the U.S. considering $200 billion of new tariffs against Chinese goods.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 12 cents at $8.43 1/2 Friday with commercials showing interest for soybean prices in the low $8s. This week's rains in the central Midwest were beneficial to filling soybeans that were already doing well in much of the Midwest. Of course, flooding in Wisconsin is not helpful, but northern Missouri could get some late benefit from this week's rains. On the demand side, new-crop soybean sales are up 15% from a year ago with 10% of the new-crop total marked for China and 50% set for unknown. Early sales to China however, are always suspicious as cancellations are a late risk. Early Friday, USDA said another 9.2 million bushels (250,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown for 2018-19. With a record soybean harvest likely on the way, depressed FOB soybean prices at the Gulf, interior basis at its most bearish level in 11 years, and virtually no soybeans being shipped out of the Northwest, November soybean prices are under extreme bearish pressure and yet, the trend remains sideways. U.S. trade policy remains a big wildcard with another $200 billion of U.S. tariffs possible next week. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.37 Friday, holding at its lowest price in 10 years and priced 95 cents below the November contract -- the weakest basis in 11 years.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat closed up 10 1/2 cents at $5.45 1/2, posting a modest gain of 9 cents this week as all three wheats were able to rebound from Tuesday's tests of five-week lows. Friday's higher trade was also helped by a 3 3/4 euro gain in Europe's price of December milling wheat. Additional support this week came from more unconfirmed talk of Russia possibly limiting 2018-19 wheat exports to 25.0 mmt (918 mb), down from 42.0 mmt a year ago. As DTN Senior Meteorolgist Bryce Anderson pointed out in Friday's Market Weather Outlook, dry weather concerns as we near planting time for winter wheat are also a concern in the Black Sea region. The recent sell-off in wheat prices should have shaken out some of the noncommercial net longs. For now, the trends in all three wheats remain sideways, helped by a roughly 5% reduction in this year's world wheat production. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.81 Friday, 54 cents below the December contract and down from its high in 2018. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.95 Friday, also down from its high in 2018. U.S. grain futures resume trading at 7 p.m. CDT on Monday.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

(CZ)

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