DTN Early Word Grains
Quiet Monday Start for Grains
December corn was up 1/2 cent, November soybeans were down 5 1/4 cents, and September Chicago wheat was up 2 1/2 cents.
CME Globex Recap:Stock markets in Asia and Europe are a little lower early Monday. The September U.S. dollar index is trading higher and yet, so are several commodities including September crude oil. U.S. sanctions are expected to be placed back on Iran Monday. Grains are lightly higher with soybeans lower.
OUTSIDE MARKETS:Previous closes on Friday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 136.42 points at 25,462.58 and the S&P 500 up 13.13 points at 2,840.35 while the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 2.95%. Early Monday, DJIA futures were up 32 points. Asian markets are lower with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 17.86 (-0.1%) and China's Shanghai Composite down 35.29 (-1.3%). European markets are also lower with London's FTSE 100 down 19.99 points (-0.3%), Germany's DAX down 47.55 points (-0.4%), and France's CAC 40 down 7.42 points (-0.1%). The euro was down .0017 and the U.S. dollar index was up 0.12 at 95.28. September 30-year T-Bonds were up 2/32nds while December gold was down $2.90 at $1,220.30 and September crude oil was up $0.97 at $69.46. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were a little higher and Malaysian palm oil futures were up 0.4%.
| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | Drought remains a problem in northern Missouri, the southern Plains, and the Pacific Northwest. | 1) | The eastern Corn Belt and southern Plains are expecting rain the next seven days. |
| 2) | IGC estimates expect significant reductions in exportable world ending stocks of corn and wheat in 2018-19. | 2) | Monday afternoon's USDA crop ratings may have slipped some, but likely remain high overall. |
| 3) | Milling wheat prices in Europe are slightly higher early Monday, near four-year highs and offering bullish influence to U.S. wheat prices. | 3) | China's 25% soybean tariff and ongoing trade war concerns are keeping investors cautious. |
CORN December corn is up 1/2 cent early Monday, having found a more balanced price level after correcting up from its low in July. Scattered showers of mostly light rains were seen over the weekend with coverage confined to small, select areas. Northeastern Iowa and southern Wisconsin were getting moderate to locally heavy amounts early Monday and more is expected in the eastern and southern Corn Belt the next seven days. Triple-digit temperatures are expected as far north as Kansas and Missouri Monday, but the rest of the week will see a familiar east/west split with hotter temperatures in the western Corn Belt. Fundamentally, the outlook for corn remains roughly neutral, thanks to USDA's estimate of lower world ending corn stocks. USDA's next update is due out Friday. Technically, the downtrend in December corn has been broken and prices appear to have found a more balanced level for a new trading range while traders try to figure out the size of this year's crop.
SOYBEANS November soybeans are down 5 1/4 cents early Monday with news over the weekend still discussing the $60 billion of tariffs that China plans to enact as retaliation to the latest proposed tariff increase from the U.S. Rain coverage the past seven days has been hit and miss the past seven days with the most seen in central Illinois. Mostly moderate temperatures should be helpful to pod-setting, but more areas could use rain and not much is expected in the western or northern areas of the Midwest the next seven days. It won't be surprising if this week's trading is limited ahead of USDA's WASDE report on Friday. The first field-based yield estimate for corn and soybeans is still an early estimate, but tends to set a tone for the direction subsequent estimates go as crops move closer to harvest. Monday afternoon's crop rating from USDA may come down a little, but should still be high enough to point to another large fall harvest. Technically, the downtrend has been broken, but this is a potentially volatile time of year. Weather plus trade policy decisions give prices wide potential in either direction.
WHEAT September Chicago wheat is up 2 1/2 cents early Monday with some bullish influence coming from slightly higher wheat prices in Europe. The U.S. winter wheat harvest is in its latter stages and has no rain in the forecast for the northwestern Plains to disrupt progress this week. The same lack of rain however, is stressing spring wheat crops from the Dakotas to the Pacific Northwest with hotter temperatures expected later this week. At the same time, eastern Australia remains dry while Europe has chances for rain later this week. Friday's next WASDE report from USDA will be of interest to wheat traders with USDA likely to show a reduction in its estimate of world wheat production. With weather risk still active in several locations around the globe, the trends for all three wheats remain up.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.39 | $0.03 | -$0.31 | Sep | -$0.002 |
| Soybeans: | $8.23 | $0.04 | -$0.79 | Nov | -$0.009 |
| SRW Wheat: | $5.29 | -$0.06 | -$0.27 | Sep | -$0.017 |
| HRW Wheat: | $5.49 | -$0.02 | -$0.19 | Sep | -$0.005 |
| HRS Wheat: | $5.67 | $0.02 | -$0.46 | Sep | -$0.005 |
Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com
Todd can be followed throughout the day on Twitter @ToddHultman1
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