DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 7 1/4 cents in the September contract and down 7 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 17 cents in the August contract and down 17 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 4 1/2 cents in the September Chicago contract, up 7 1/4 cents in the September Kansas City, and up 1 3/4 cents in the September Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.11 at 94.38. December gold is down $4.60 at $1,229.00 while September silver is down 10 cents and September copper is down $0.0910. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 83 points at 25,332. September crude oil is down $1.15 at $67.61. September heating oil is down $0.0461, while September RBOB gasoline is down $0.0384 and September natural gas is down 0.022.

Corn:

December corn fell 7 cents to $3.79 1/2 Wednesday, erasing Tuesday's gain after the six-to-10 day forecast returned from hot and dry to a more normal outlook for the Corn Belt. Wednesday's weather map showed scattered showers in Wisconsin and Ohio, but was mostly dry otherwise for the rest of the Corn Belt with moderate temperatures still benefiting crops. The latest seven-day forecast expects moderate rain amounts in the northern and eastern Corn Belt, but will stay dry elsewhere with high temperatures in the 90s in the western Corn Belt and in the 80s in the eastern Corn Belt. The U.S. Energy Department said last week's ethanol production slipped from 1.074 to 1.064 million barrels per day last week, still a high pace and a source of support for corn prices. Ethanol inventory increased from 21.7 to 22.0 million barrels. Thursday morning's report of export sales will be interesting as corn has a lot of ground to cover before the end of August. For now, the trend is sideways with weather presenting some bullish concern as we move into August. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.42 Tuesday, up sharply from its lows in 2018 and 30 cents below the September contract. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.11 after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged after Wednesday's meeting, as was expected.

Soybeans:

November soybeans gave back 17 1/4 cents of Tuesday's 28-cent gain, finishing back at $9.01 3/4. Early Friday, CNBC.com reported the White House is going to propose increasing $200 billion of tariffs on Chinese goods from 10% to 25%, just one day after Bloomberg news reported Treasury Secretary Mnuchin was having private conversations with China in hopes of finding a solution to the current trade dispute. Wednesday's reported proposal has not been confirmed yet, but an announcement is expected from the White House later Wednesday afternoon. In case soybean prices weren't volatile enough, keep in mind more than 60% of soybeans are now setting pods and the six-to-10 day forecast from the National Weather Service just changed from hotter and drier on Tuesday to a more moderate outlook for the Midwest on Wednesday. Temperatures will still become hotter in the western Midwest, but should stay more moderate in the eastern Midwest with some chances for rain. Tuesday's higher closes turned the trends higher in both, November soybeans and December soybean meal, but a sideways call looks more appropriate during this volatile time of year. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.41 Tuesday, well up from its lowest price in over nine years and priced 78 cents below the November contract.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat closed up 4 1/2 cents and September K.C. wheat was up 7 1/4 cents at $5.63 3/4 Wednesday, staying near the higher end of this year's prices with help from a nearly 2% gain in the price of Europe's milling wheat. Dry weather concerns in Europe, the northwestern U.S., eastern Australia, and the southern Canadian Prairies all remain active, but it is not clear yet if the situations will be bullish enough to send winter wheat prices to new highs in 2018. The International Grains Council estimated world wheat production down 5% in 2018-19. USDA's next estimate is set for Friday, August 10. This is a volatile time of year, but with weather concerns still active, the trends for all three U.S. wheats remain up. DTN's National SRW index closed at $5.26 Tuesday, 28 cents below the September contract and at a new 2018 high. DTN's National HRW index closed at $5.39 Tuesday, near its highest price in 2018.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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