DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 4 cents in the September contract and up 4 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 3 3/4 cents in the August contract and up 3 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 9 3/4 cents in the September Chicago contract, up 8 3/4 cents in the September Kansas City and up 8 3/4 cents in the September Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.01 at 94.82. August gold is down $1.40 at $1,226.50, while September silver is down 15 cents and September copper is down $0.0545. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 86 points at 25,113. September crude oil is up $0.31 at $68.06. September heating oil is down $0.0071, while September RBOB gasoline is down $0.0084 and September natural gas is up 0.047.

Corn:

December corn closed up 4 cents at $3.65 Thursday while corn crops in the southern Plains are getting scorched with hot and dry weather that is expected to continue at least another five days. The six to 10 day forecast looks more crop friendly, but doesn't expect much rain for Missouri or most of the Midwest. Below normal temperatures are expected to dip as far south as Oklahoma. Looking out three months, the Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that it expects drought to get worse in the southern Plains. On the demand side, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 25.2 and 50.9 million bushels respectively, a neutral showing for the week that put total corn shipments at 1.884 billion bushels, down 3% in 2017-18 from a year ago. Corn has seven more weeks to reach USDA's 2.400 billion bushel estimate and will probably fall short of the goal. Fundamentally, this is the key time for weather and so far, crop conditions are broadly favorable with concerns of too much rain in the northwestern region and too hot and dry in the southwestern region. The trend remains down for December corn. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.17 Wednesday, up from its lows in 2018 and 30 cents below the September contract. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index was trading higher earlier, but fell back to trading up just 0.01 after Dow Jones reported President Trump does not like the Fed's plan to increase interest rates.

Soybeans:

November soybeans ended up 3 3/4 cents at $8.61 1/2 Thursday, holding its gains for the week while it remains difficult to assess crops in 2018. As mentioned for corn above, soybean crops are suffering hot and dry conditions this week in Kansas and Missouri, while more moderate temperatures prevail over the rest of the Midwest. The extended forecast is mostly dry for soybean producing states, but does offer a chance for rain in Kansas. Missouri, however, is one of a handful of states in the southern Plains where drought is expected to get worse the next three months. On the demand side, USDA said early Thursday, last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 9.3 and 22.2 million bushels respectively, a neutral combination that shows soybeans struggling to keep up with USDA's new export estimate of 2.085 billion bushels. USDA's first field-based yield estimate will be released on August 10, but until then, traders appear cautious to buy soybeans based on weather concerns at the margins. Technically, the trend remains down for soybeans with trade issues an ongoing concern. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.82 Wednesday, up from its lowest price in over nine years and priced 60 cents below the August contract.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat closed up 9 3/4 cents and September K.C. wheat was up 8 3/4 cents at $4.96 1/2, holding stubbornly above their 2018 lows while the market waits for a better assessment of this year's global production. Here in the U.S., winter wheat harvest is making progress and the spring wheat crop is doing well, but Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor showed increased dryness in the Pacific Northwest. Canada's western Prairie could also use more rain. The problem areas outside the U.S. aren't new, but aren't getting any better either as north-central Europe remains dry (have you seen the British Open?) and southern Russia is expecting heavy rain just as their dry wheat crop is ready for harvest. Earlier Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 11.0 and 16.0 million bushels respectively, more than last week's amounts, but still a long way below USDA's expectations for 2018-19. The world's supply of exportable wheat is expected to be lower in 2018-19, but commercials are showing no signs of concern about obtaining supplies. The trends for all three wheat futures remain down with winter wheat prices holding stubbornly above their 2018 lows. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.69 Wednesday, up from a new two-month low and 26 cents below the September contract. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.72, also up from its lowest prices in two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(BE)

Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.