DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 1 cent in the September contract and up 1 1/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 2 3/4 cents in the August contract and up 2 1/2 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 3 1/4 cents in the September Chicago contract, down 3 cents in the September Kansas City and down 5 1/4 cents in the September Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.10 at 94.80. August gold is steady at $1,227.30, while September silver is down 4 cents and September copper is up $0.0160. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 67 points at 25,187. September crude oil is up $0.52 at $67.68. September heating oil is up $0.0202, while September RBOB gasoline is up $0.0235 and September natural gas is down 0.016.

Corn:

December corn ended up 1 1/4 cents at $3.61 Wednesday, a quiet day of trading that saw some rain reach South Dakota and some of the drier areas of the southern Plains. More rain is expected in the north-central and eastern Corn Belt the next seven days, but only light amounts for the dry corner of the southwestern Corn Belt. Similarly, most of the Corn Belt will enjoy more moderate temperatures during the next five days, while triple-digit temperatures and high 90s remain common in the southwestern Plains. Given the current outlook for the rest of July, corn crop ratings are likely to slip lower, but the major growing areas should continue to do well. The U.S. Energy Department said last week's ethanol production increased from 1.033 to 1.064 million barrels per day while ethanol inventory dropped from 22.4 to 21.8 million barrels. Ethanol continues to provide corn consistent demand support while actual U.S. corn exports are down 4% from a year ago. For now, the trend remains down for December corn. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.15 Tuesday, up from its lowest price in 2018 and 31 cents below the September contract. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.10 after the Federal Reserve's Beige Book said 10 of the 12 Fed districts showed moderate or modest growth. August cattle closed up $2.52, a new three-month high with livestock stressed by hot temperatures in the southern Plains.

Soybeans:

November soybeans ended up 2 1/2 cents at $8.57 3/4, also a quiet day of trading in the middle of the week. As mentioned above, rain is expected to come to much of the Midwest during the next seven days, including areas of Iowa and Minnesota that don't need more rain, while the drier areas of Kansas and Missouri are expecting only light amounts. Moderate temperatures will help soybean conditions across much of the Midwest, but not in the southern Plains where readings remain hot. On the demand side, USDA said early Wednesday 7.3 million bushels (199,500 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to Pakistan for 2018-19. Export demand in the current season remains a sore subject with soybean shipments down 6% from a year ago and no progress being seen in the standoff over tariffs with China. USDA will present its first yield estimates from the field on August 10 and, until then, the best guess is that the 2018 soybean crop may not be far off from last year's record high 4.39 billion bushels. The big uncertainty is that it is nearly impossible to estimate soybean demand in the new season with no idea of where the current tariff war is headed. For now, the trend remains down for soybeans with trade issues an ongoing concern. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.79 Tuesday, up from its lowest price in over nine years and priced 60 cents below the August contract.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat ended down 3 1/4 cents and September K.C. wheat was down 3 cents Wednesday, at $4.87 3/4, not straying far on a day of light trading. Wednesday saw spotty showers in the western Plains, but not enough to bother the winter wheat harvest, which is moving north through Nebraska. Rain is expected to help spring wheat crops in the Dakotas and Canadian Prairie the next seven days, but Montana to the Pacific Northwest will be mostly dry. In southern Russia, where wheat crops have been hurt by dry weather all season, DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson reports heavy rains are now becoming a threat for further problems at harvest time. Fundamentally, the wheat market is finding a healthier balance in 2018 with exportable world ending supplies expected to hit their lowest level in 2018-19 since 2012. However, the U.S. and Europe still have plenty of excess to keep commercials from worrying about a lack of wheat, at least until the end of this year. For now, the trends for all three wheat futures remain down, but winter wheat prices are also holding stubbornly above their 2018 lows. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.72 Tuesday, up from a new two-month low and 26 cents below the September contract. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.76, also up from its lowest prices in two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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