DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 3 cents in the July contract and up 2 1/2 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 10 1/4 cents in the July contract and up 8 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 11 1/4 cents in the July Chicago contract, up 12 1/2 cents in the July Kansas City and up 5 1/2 cents in the July Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is down 0.11 at 92.23. June gold is up $9.90 at $1,315.50 while May silver is up 7 cents and May copper is up $0.0150. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 14 points at 23,911. June crude oil is up $0.26 at $68.19. June heating oil is down $0.0119, June RBOB gasoline is down $0.0017, and June natural gas is down $0.033.

Corn:

July corn closed up 3 cents at $4.08 Thursday, another new eight-month high with help from South American weather. Prices continue to find support from dry weather in Brazil where corn is in pollination and the seven-day forecast still looks mostly dry. Here in the U.S., southern Iowa showed an increase of abnormally dry conditions in Thursday's US Drought Monitor, but Wednesday's rain plus more expected in the seven-day forecast should help provide a remedy. Outside the southwestern U.S. Plains, most of the Corn Belt has favorable soil moisture as temperatures finally get warm enough for planting to pick up. FOB corn prices are currently 21 cents a bushel cheaper in Brazil, but if dry weather continues there, we should see an improvement in U.S. corn exports. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's sales and shipments of corn totaled 40.2 million bushels (mb) and 58.0 mb respectively, a neutral showing for the week that has total corn shipments down 17% in 2017-18 from a year ago. USDA said Thursday exports of U.S. ethanol were up 68% in March from a year ago, thanks largely to Brazil and Canada. Technically, Tuesday's higher close turned the trend up in July corn, in line with what it already was in new-crop corn. CME Group reported 478 delivery intentions in May corn early Thursday. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.69 Wednesday, near its highest price in 22 months and priced 36 cents below the July contract. In outside markets, the June US dollar index is having a quiet trading day, down 0.11 while outside commodities are mixed. June gold is $9.70 higher.

Soybeans:

July soybeans traded lower most the day, but ended up 10 1/4 cents at $10.53 1/4 Thursday. According to the Wall Street Journal, the first day of a two-day meeting with China ended without substantial comment, however, a surge of buying volume hit the market around 1 p.m. CDT, which is 2 a.m. Beijing time. It is difficult to say if the buyers actually knew something favorable for soybean prices, or if they were just putting in a last minute bet before Friday's session. With this year's drought in Argentina putting attention on soybean meal, July soybean oil has been the weak sister in the soy complex, but ended up 0.21 cents after getting some bullish news Thursday. A USDA report showed exports of U.S. biodiesel were up 87% in March from a year ago, thanks to Canada and Peru. USDA also said 30,000 metric tons (mt) of soybean oil were sold to Peru for 2017-18. Spot bean oil prices remain near their lowest level in over a year, but are contributing to a high crush margin, which helps domestic soybean demand. U.S. soybean exports, however, are dragging on prices. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 15.3 mb and 25.4 mb respectively, a neutral-to-bearish performance that kept total soybean shipments down 13% in 2017-18 from a year ago. Details showed that China reneged on a 4.9 mb sale of old-crop soybeans and picked up 2.4 mb of new-crop soybeans. For now, the trend is sideways in old-crop soybeans and up in new-crop soybeans with traders leery of trade talks with China. For May contracts, the CME Group reported 68 delivery intentions for soybeans, four for meal, and 280 for soybean oil early Thursday. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.70 Wednesday, down from its April high and priced 73 cents below the July contract.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat closed up 11 1/4 cents and July Kansas City wheat was up 12 1/2 cents at $5.67 3/4, near its highest prices of 2018. Day two of the Wheat Quality Council's HRW wheat tour estimated a yield of 35.2 bushels an acre (bpa), down from 46.9 bpa a year ago as damage from drought was especially apparent around the Oklahoma Panhandle. The southwestern Plains did receive some beneficial rain Wednesday and Thursday, but obviously more is needed and so far, the seven-day forecast remains mostly dry for the region. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments totaled 8.6 mb and 10.4 mb respectively, another bearish showing that put total wheat shipments down 12% in 2017-18 from a year ago. Technically, Tuesday's higher closes turned the trends higher for the July contracts of both, Chicago and K.C. wheat. For May contracts, early Thursday showed 86 delivery intentions for K.C. wheat, none for Minneapolis wheat and still none for Chicago wheat. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.93 Wednesday, its highest price in nine months and 34 cents below the July contract. DTN's HRW index closed at $5.09, its highest prices in over two years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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