DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 1 1/2 cents in the May contract and down 3/4 cent in the December. Soybeans were up 3 cents in the May contract and up 4 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 1 1/4 cents in the May Chicago contract, down 1 cent in the May Kansas City and unchanged in the May Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is down 0.18 at 89.35. June gold is up $2.80 at $1,342.90 while May silver is up 5 cents and May copper is up $0.0620. The Dow is up 459 points at 24,438. May crude oil is up $2.02 at $65.44. May heating oil is up $0.0650 while May RBOB gasoline is up $0.0546 and May natural gas is down $0.041.

Corn:

May corn closed down 1 1/2 cents Tuesday after USDA increased its estimate of U.S. ending corn stocks from 2.127 billion bushels (bb) to 2.182 bb, close to expectations and the result of a 50-million bushel (mb) reduction in feed demand. USDA also reduced its estimate of world ending corn stocks from 199.17 million metric tons (mmt) to 197.78 mmt (7.79 bb), roughly as expected. The corn crop estimate was reduced from 94.5 mmt to 92.0 mmtfor Brazil and from 36.0 mmt to 33.0 mmt for Argentina, both near expectations. Corn ending stocks would have dropped more, were it not for a 5.2-mmt reduction in USDA's estimate of world demand. New-crop issues were not addressed in Tuesday's WASDE report, but late Monday, USDA said 2% of corn was planted, mostly in Texas where 58% of the crop is in. Corn prices did not have much response after Tuesday's report, and the trend remains sideways for May corn, but up for December corn. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.56 Monday, near its highest prices since June 2016 and priced 35 cents below the May contract. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.18 and the Dow futures are up 459 points after China's President said he favors lower tariffs, and will work to improve the enforcement of foreign intellectual property rights.

Soybeans:

Shortly after Tuesday's WASDE report was released, May soybeans briefly traded 17 cents higher, but only ended up 3 cents at the close, still trading within its sideways range after the dust settled. The initial burst of buying likely responded to USDA's 550 mb U.S. ending stocks estimate, as USDA appeared to ignore soybeans' bearish Grain Stocks report of March 29. The crush estimate was increased 10 mb and exports were left unchanged. USDA reduced its estimate of world ending soybean stocks from 94.40 mmt to 90.80 mmt (3.34 bb). Brazil's crop estimate was increased to a record high 115.0 mmt (4.23 bb) while Argentina's estimate was cut from 47.0 mmt to 40.0 mmt (1.47 bb). Earlier in the day, Argentina also made news with a soybean purchase from the U.S. At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA said 10.3 mb (279,000 metric tons) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2017-18. For 2018-19, 4.85 mb (132,000 mt) of soybeans were sold to China and 4.4 mb (120,000 mt) were sold to Argentina. In spite of Brazil's record harvest, its FOB price hit $11.73 Tuesday, the highest since August 2016 and 38 cents above the FOB price in New Orleans. New-crop soybeans and meal continues to show trends pointed up with old-crop soybeans are holding sideways. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.76 Monday, back near its highest prices in over a year and priced 71 cents below the May contract.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat closed up 1 1/4 cents and May Kansas City wheat closed down 1 cent, but it was difficult to tell if the price moves had any relation to USDA's WASDE report. USDA increased its estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks from 1.034 bb to 1.064 bb, helped by a 30-mb reduction in feed demand. USDA increased its estimate of world ending wheat stocks from 268.89 mmt to 271.22 mmt (9.97 bb), largely due to a revision in a previous year while current season estimates showed little change. More importantly to wheat prices, the seven-day forecast remains dry for the southwestern U.S. Plains. There won't be much spring wheat planting in April this year with snow still on the ground across the Northern Plains. For now, the trends for all three wheats remain sideways. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.59 Monday, near its highest prices in eight months and 32 cents below the May contract. DTN's HRW index closed at $4.82, near its highest price in two years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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