DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 1 1/4 cents in the May contract and up 1 cent in the December. Soybeans were up 2 1/2 cents in the May contract and up 2 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 11 1/4 cents in the May Chicago contract, up 17 1/4 cents in the May Kansas City and up 9 1/2 cents in the May Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.18 at 89.89. June gold is down $10.40 at $1,336.50 while May silver is down 28 cents and May copper is up $0.0105. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 125 points at 23,769. May crude oil is up $0.33 at $63.34. May heating oil is up $0.0114 while May RBOB gasoline is up $0.0067 and May natural gas is up $0.009.

Corn:

May corn kept a low profile Tuesday, pushing up 1 1/4 cents to $3.88 1/2 while other grains advanced by double-digits. Monday's state Crop Progress reports showed planting picking up in the south with Texas, Mississippi and Arkansas at 55%, 50% and 24% planted, respectively. In the north, little progress is expected for a while as snow fell across the northern Midwest Tuesday and another wave of rain pelted the eastern Midwest, with severe weather warnings along the Mississippi Delta and Ohio River. Farther south, this week's forecast for Brazil continues to look favorable for the second corn crop while Argentina remains dry. Fundamentally, the outlook for corn prices is neutral (see Tuesday's article, "Is Corn as Bullish as It Looks?") with plenty of uncertainty ahead. Technically, the trends in both May and December corn are currently up. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.52 Monday, back near its highest prices since June 2016 and priced 36 cents below the May contract. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.18, holding roughly steady for two months while investors assess the impact of recent trade policy changes.

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed up 2 1/2 cents at $10.38 with help from commercial buying in new-crop soybean meal. Argentina's weekend rains won't offer much help to row crops this late in the season and the seven-day forecast is back to looking dry again this week. Brazil's soybean harvest continues to make good progress, so it is surprising to see Brazil's FOB soybean price trading at $11.50, its highest price in over a year, and 36 cents above the FOB soybean price in New Orleans. With U.S. soybean exports still struggling, down 12% in 2017-18, it is fair to say that China's demand remains strong enough to lift Brazil's soybean prices while simultaneously avoiding the U.S. Technically, the weekly trend for May soybeans is sideways while the trend for November soybeans remains up, with prices near their contract high. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.59 Monday, down from its highest prices in a year and priced 76 cents below the May contract.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat closed up 11 1/4 cents and May Kansas City wheat finished up 17 1/4 cents at $4.84 3/4, its highest close in two weeks with support from USDA's first Crop Progress report of 2018 and adverse weather. Late Monday, USDA said 32% of U.S. winter wheat was rated good-to-excellent, resulting in the lowest DTN Winter Wheat Index since 2002. Only 10% of winter wheat in Kansas was rated good and none was rated excellent while 47% was rated either poor or very poor. Along with the poor crop ratings, the seven-day forecast remains dry for the southwestern U.S. Plains and Kansas was hit by high winds early Tuesday, gusting into the upper-40s and 50s near Wichita. Fire danger remains a serious concern in the region with temperatures turning warmer the next two days. Outside of the U.S., no significant problems are being reported for winter wheat, making it difficult to see a path yet for significantly higher prices. In spite of Tuesday's rally, the weekly trends remain bearish for all three wheats. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.15 Thursday, near its lowest in over a month and 31 cents below the May contract. DTN's HRW index closed at $4.27, up from its lowest price in over a month.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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